Alperen Sengun
Paying a premium — −$16.2M under water
Alperen Sengun projects to 9.9 marginal wins — $34.7M of on-court value — against an apron-adjusted true cost of $50.9M.
Paying a premium — −$16.2M under water
At −$16.2M under water the deal drags the books; it still grades "needs-sweetener", so quietly canvassing the market beats waiting for it to worsen.
For $33.9M this season (4 yr, $151M total), you are buying 9.9 marginal wins of EPM production — $34.7M of value at $3.5M/win. Against an apron-adjusted true cost of $50.9M, that nets −$16.2M of surplus, 127th of 178 tracked contracts — it grades as an overpay.
If wins price up toward $4.2M/win and the apron tax eases, production value climbs to $45.2M and surplus swings to +$2.8M — fair value in the optimistic case.
If a marginal win is worth less and the apron bites harder, true cost rises to $59.3M and surplus falls to −$34.0M — an albatross in the pessimistic case; the verdict flips across the band.
Caution — the verdict flips somewhere across bear/base/bull assumptions. This call is assumption-sensitive, not settled.
This call changes under bear assumptions: Alperen Sengun grades Albatross risk in the bear case but Fairly pricedin the bull case — treat the verdict above as a live read of today’s sliders, not a settled fact.
The market's own numbers: a win costs what the middle of the league pays for it.
Every apron dollar is real money — the tax ledger, not the highlight reel, decides who wins the summer.
Banners hang forever. A marginal win today is worth almost any tomorrow, and the tax is the cost of doing business.
Wins you buy before you're ready are the most expensive wins in basketball — flexibility is the only asset that never ages.
The tenth man is closer to the star than the star's agent admits — pay for scarcity you can prove, not reputation.
4 of 5 desks disagree with the verdict above — that disagreement is the story.
Take the question to the docket →Similar money band ($34.0M vs $33.9M) and impact (2.8 vs 3.8); his deal grades paying a premium at −$5.3M.
Similar money band ($34.0M vs $33.9M) and impact (2.8 vs 3.8); his deal grades paying a premium at −$5.3M.
Similar money band ($35.0M vs $33.9M) and impact (2.9 vs 3.8); his deal grades paying a premium at −$5.7M.
How the model gets there.
The audit trail behind every figure in the memo above — six steps from raw on-court impact to the final surplus verdict, using the same sliders. Drag any assumption and the memo above updates with it.
AASV = wins × $/win − cap hit × apron multiplier. Set the knobs to your own front-office judgment — every number on this page updates live.
League estimated net rating (per 100 poss. vs. an average player), cached from stats.nba.com (seed snapshot).
Est. Impact = 3.8 · 2025-26 · 74 games · 2,500 minutes
Impact is credited above replacement level (-2.0), scaled by the possessions he actually played (minutes × 2.08/min), then converted at 30.5 net points per win.
(3.8 − (-2.0)) × 5,208 poss ÷ 100 = 302 net pts
302 ÷ 30.5 = 9.9 wins
Wins are priced at your $/win setting ($3.5M per win).
9.9 wins × $3.5M = $34.7M
HOU is a first apron team, so every Alperen Sengun dollar is charged at 1.50× — your setting for what that tier’s tax and roster restrictions really cost. Contract: 4 yrs · $151M remaining.
$33.9M cap hit × 1.50 = $50.9M
$34.7M − $50.9M = −$16.2M
Alperen Sengun costs more than he produces under these assumptions — the contract eats value.
First season on file — the trend view, and its tie-in to aging risk, unlocks once another season lands.