What a star is worth when every dollar doesn’t cost a dollar.
Apron-Adjusted Surplus Value (AASV)prices a player two ways — the wins he produces, and what his contract truly costs once the CBA’s apron penalties are charged against it. The gap between the two is his real trade value. Every assumption below is yours to set.
178 tracked contracts · 30 teams · hand-curated from public reporting · how the model works →
The whole idea in one sentence: a player is worth what he produces minus what he truly costs — and every number that goes into that sentence is a dial you can turn, not a fact we hand you. If terms like “apron” or “surplus value” are new, the glossary defines every one, and Track 101 teaches the economics behind the dials.
Adopt a worldview
The model’s every number depends on what you believe a win costs. Pick a desk to sit at — everything on this site recomputes under it.
The Open Docket
The bear/bull sensitivity band doesn't just move the surplus number, it moves the verdict itself: an albatross in the pessimistic case, fair value in the optimistic one, on the exact same contract.
Every preset worldview runs the same $55.2M contract through its own price-of-a-win and apron fear, and the verdict moves 3 tiers depending on which one you believe.
PHX's tracked books sit at severe apron risk: Second-apron majority lifts $141M of cap into $283M of true cost — a $141M tax premium and the roster tools that come with it.
BOS's tracked books sit at severe apron risk: Second-apron majority lifts $184M of cap into $369M of true cost — a $184M tax premium and the roster tools that come with it.
Today's read on the tracked slate
Victor Wembanyama is the standout at +$37.7M of tracked surplus; Jayson Tatum is the biggest hole at −$104M under water; and 80 of 178 tracked deals grade as albatross risk under these assumptions.
AASV = wins × $/win − cap hit × apron multiplier. Set the knobs to your own front-office judgment — every number on this page updates live.
| Rank | Verdict | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Victor Wembanyama | SAS | $13.4M | Below apron | $51.1M | +$37.7M | Bargain |
| 2 | Jalen Williams | OKC | $6.6M | Below apron | $39.4M | +$32.8M | Bargain |
| 3 | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | OKC | $38.3M | Below apron | $63.4M | +$25.1M | Bargain |
| 4 | Chet Holmgren | OKC | $13.7M | Below apron | $27.1M | +$13.4M | Bargain |
| 5 | Paolo Banchero | ORL | $15.3M | First apron | $25.2M | +$2.2M | Fairly priced |
| 6 | Yves Missi | NOP | $3.4M | Below apron | $3.2M | −$0.2M | Fairly priced |
| 7 | Isaiah Collier | UTA | $3.9M | Below apron | $3.6M | −$0.3M | Fairly priced |
| 8 | Gradey Dick | TOR | $4.4M | Below apron | $3.9M | −$0.5M | Fairly priced |
| 9 | Matas Buzelis | CHI | $4.4M | Below apron | $3.9M | −$0.5M | Fairly priced |
| 10 | Devin Carter | SAC | $4.1M | Below apron | $3.6M | −$0.5M | Fairly priced |
| 11 | Kris Dunn | LAC | $4.3M | Below apron | $3.6M | −$0.7M | Paying a premium |
| 12 | Ziaire Williams | BKN | $4.3M | Below apron | $3.6M | −$0.7M | Paying a premium |
| 13 | Bilal Coulibaly | WAS | $8.4M | Below apron | $7.7M | −$0.7M | Fairly priced |
| 14 | Taylor Hendricks | UTA | $8.4M | Below apron | $7.7M | −$0.7M | Fairly priced |
| 15 | Keyonte George | UTA | $8.0M | Below apron | $7.2M | −$0.8M | Fairly priced |
| 16 | Toumani Camara | POR | $8.0M | Below apron | $7.2M | −$0.8M | Fairly priced |
| 17 | Jaden Ivey | DET | $8.5M | Below apron | $7.7M | −$0.8M | Fairly priced |
| 18 | Donovan Clingan | POR | $8.3M | Below apron | $7.2M | −$1.1M | Fairly priced |
| 19 | Ausar Thompson | DET | $9.3M | Below apron | $8.1M | −$1.2M | Fairly priced |
| 20 | Obi Toppin | IND | $15.0M | Below apron | $13.8M | −$1.2M | Fairly priced |
| 21 | Isaiah Stewart | DET | $15.0M | Below apron | $13.8M | −$1.2M | Fairly priced |
| 22 | Keegan Murray | SAC | $9.4M | Below apron | $8.1M | −$1.3M | Fairly priced |
| 23 | T.J. McConnell | IND | $9.0M | Below apron | $7.7M | −$1.3M | Fairly priced |
| 24 | Bogdan Bogdanovic | LAC | $9.5M | Below apron | $8.1M | −$1.4M | Fairly priced |
| 25 | Keldon Johnson | SAS | $15.8M | Below apron | $14.3M | −$1.5M | Fairly priced |
| 26 | Tre Johnson | WAS | $9.6M | Below apron | $8.1M | −$1.5M | Paying a premium |
| 27 | Tidjane Salaun | CHA | $5.8M | Below apron | $4.3M | −$1.5M | Paying a premium |
| 28 | Kel'el Ware | MIA | $5.8M | Below apron | $4.3M | −$1.5M | Paying a premium |
| 29 | Kon Knueppel | CHA | $9.2M | Below apron | $7.7M | −$1.5M | Paying a premium |
| 30 | Santi Aldama | MEM | $10.2M | Below apron | $8.6M | −$1.6M | Paying a premium |
| 31 | Ayo Dosunmu | CHI | $16.0M | Below apron | $14.3M | −$1.7M | Fairly priced |
| 32 | Nickeil Alexander-Walker | ATL | $15.5M | Below apron | $13.8M | −$1.7M | Fairly priced |
| 33 | Ace Bailey | UTA | $9.9M | Below apron | $8.1M | −$1.8M | Paying a premium |
| 34 | Zach Edey | MEM | $9.9M | Below apron | $8.1M | −$1.8M | Paying a premium |
| 35 | Stephon Castle | SAS | $10.4M | Below apron | $8.6M | −$1.8M | Paying a premium |
| 36 | Luguentz Dort | OKC | $16.2M | Below apron | $14.3M | −$1.9M | Fairly priced |
| 37 | Harrison Barnes | SAS | $18.0M | Below apron | $16.1M | −$1.9M | Fairly priced |
| 38 | Patrick Williams | CHI | $18.0M | Below apron | $16.1M | −$1.9M | Fairly priced |
| 39 | Shaedon Sharpe | POR | $18.0M | Below apron | $16.1M | −$1.9M | Fairly priced |
| 40 | Corey Kispert | WAS | $16.3M | Below apron | $14.3M | −$2.0M | Fairly priced |
| 41 | Davion Mitchell | MIA | $11.8M | Below apron | $9.6M | −$2.2M | Paying a premium |
| 42 | Peyton Watson | DEN | $3.9M | First apron | $3.6M | −$2.3M | Paying a premium |
| 43 | Terance Mann | BKN | $7.7M | Below apron | $5.4M | −$2.3M | Paying a premium |
| 44 | Egor Demin | BKN | $7.4M | Below apron | $5.0M | −$2.4M | Paying a premium |
| 45 | Aaron Wiggins | OKC | $11.5M | Below apron | $9.1M | −$2.4M | Paying a premium |
| 46 | Coby White | CHI | $12.0M | Below apron | $9.6M | −$2.4M | Paying a premium |
| 47 | Brandon Clarke | MEM | $12.5M | Below apron | $10.0M | −$2.5M | Paying a premium |
| 48 | Zaccharie Risacher | ATL | $12.5M | Below apron | $10.0M | −$2.5M | Paying a premium |
| 49 | Brandon Miller | CHA | $11.6M | Below apron | $9.1M | −$2.5M | Paying a premium |
| 50 | Steven Adams | HOU | $4.4M | First apron | $3.9M | −$2.7M | Albatross risk |
| 51 | Alex Sarr | WAS | $12.3M | Below apron | $9.6M | −$2.7M | Paying a premium |
| 52 | Grant Williams | CHA | $13.3M | Below apron | $10.5M | −$2.8M | Paying a premium |
| 53 | Jalen Duren | DET | $20.0M | Below apron | $17.2M | −$2.8M | Fairly priced |
| 54 | Nikola Vucevic | CHI | $20.0M | Below apron | $17.2M | −$2.8M | Fairly priced |
| 55 | Alex Caruso | OKC | $20.0M | Below apron | $17.2M | −$2.8M | Fairly priced |
| 56 | Taurean Prince | MIL | $4.5M | First apron | $3.9M | −$2.8M | Albatross risk |
| 57 | Malik Monk | SAC | $19.5M | Below apron | $16.6M | −$2.9M | Fairly priced |
| 58 | Onyeka Okongwu | ATL | $19.5M | Below apron | $16.6M | −$2.9M | Fairly priced |
| 59 | Jakob Poeltl | TOR | $19.5M | Below apron | $16.6M | −$2.9M | Fairly priced |
| 60 | Ivica Zubac | LAC | $20.7M | Below apron | $17.8M | −$2.9M | Fairly priced |
| 61 | Herbert Jones | NOP | $13.5M | Below apron | $10.5M | −$3.0M | Paying a premium |
| 62 | Damian Lillard | POR | $14.0M | Below apron | $10.5M | −$3.5M | Paying a premium |
| 63 | Andrew Nembhard | IND | $23.0M | Below apron | $19.5M | −$3.5M | Paying a premium |
| 64 | Marcus Smart | LAL | $5.0M | First apron | $3.9M | −$3.6M | Albatross risk |
| 65 | Walker Kessler | UTA | $22.0M | Below apron | $18.4M | −$3.6M | Paying a premium |
| 66 | Miles Bridges | CHA | $23.3M | Below apron | $19.5M | −$3.8M | Paying a premium |
| 67 | Cam Thomas | BKN | $24.0M | Below apron | $20.1M | −$3.9M | Paying a premium |
| 68 | DeMar DeRozan | SAC | $24.7M | Below apron | $20.7M | −$4.0M | Paying a premium |
| 69 | Tobias Harris | DET | $26.0M | Below apron | $21.8M | −$4.2M | Paying a premium |
| 70 | Josh Giddey | CHI | $25.0M | Below apron | $20.7M | −$4.3M | Paying a premium |
| 71 | Norman Powell | MIA | $25.0M | Below apron | $20.7M | −$4.3M | Paying a premium |
| 72 | Deandre Ayton | LAL | $8.0M | First apron | $7.2M | −$4.8M | Albatross risk |
| 73 | Anthony Black | ORL | $8.0M | First apron | $7.2M | −$4.8M | Albatross risk |
| 74 | Quentin Grimes | PHI | $8.0M | First apron | $7.2M | −$4.8M | Albatross risk |
| 75 | Dejounte Murray | NOP | $30.0M | Below apron | $25.1M | −$4.9M | Paying a premium |
| 76 | Isaiah Hartenstein | OKC | $30.0M | Below apron | $25.1M | −$4.9M | Paying a premium |
| 77 | RJ Barrett | TOR | $30.0M | Below apron | $25.1M | −$4.9M | Paying a premium |
| 78 | Jalen Johnson | ATL | $30.0M | Below apron | $25.1M | −$4.9M | Paying a premium |
| 79 | Kristaps Porzingis | ATL | $30.7M | Below apron | $25.7M | −$5.0M | Paying a premium |
| 80 | Immanuel Quickley | TOR | $32.5M | Below apron | $27.5M | −$5.0M | Paying a premium |
| 81 | Trey Murphy III | NOP | $28.0M | Below apron | $23.0M | −$5.0M | Paying a premium |
| 82 | Jordan Poole | NOP | $32.0M | Below apron | $26.9M | −$5.1M | Paying a premium |
| 83 | Nic Claxton | BKN | $29.3M | Below apron | $24.1M | −$5.2M | Paying a premium |
| 84 | CJ McCollum | WAS | $33.3M | Below apron | $28.1M | −$5.2M | Paying a premium |
| 85 | Kelly Oubre Jr. | PHI | $8.3M | First apron | $7.2M | −$5.3M | Albatross risk |
| 86 | Khris Middleton | WAS | $34.0M | Below apron | $28.7M | −$5.3M | Paying a premium |
| 87 | Jaren Jackson Jr. | MEM | $34.0M | Below apron | $28.7M | −$5.3M | Paying a premium |
| 88 | Bennedict Mathurin | IND | $29.0M | Below apron | $23.5M | −$5.5M | Paying a premium |
| 89 | Tyler Herro | MIA | $29.0M | Below apron | $23.5M | −$5.5M | Paying a premium |
| 90 | Jrue Holiday | POR | $32.4M | Below apron | $26.9M | −$5.5M | Paying a premium |
| 91 | Goga Bitadze | ORL | $6.8M | First apron | $4.7M | −$5.5M | Albatross risk |
| 92 | Devin Vassell | SAS | $29.2M | Below apron | $23.5M | −$5.7M | Paying a premium |
| 93 | Reed Sheppard | HOU | $8.9M | First apron | $7.7M | −$5.7M | Albatross risk |
| 94 | Deni Avdija | POR | $35.0M | Below apron | $29.3M | −$5.7M | Paying a premium |
| 95 | Buddy Hield | GSW | $9.0M | First apron | $7.7M | −$5.8M | Albatross risk |
| 96 | Amen Thompson | HOU | $9.6M | First apron | $8.1M | −$6.3M | Albatross risk |
| 97 | Jonathan Kuminga | GSW | $7.8M | First apron | $5.4M | −$6.3M | Albatross risk |
| 98 | Gary Trent Jr. | MIL | $10.0M | First apron | $8.6M | −$6.4M | Albatross risk |
| 99 | James Harden | LAC | $36.3M | Below apron | $29.9M | −$6.4M | Paying a premium |
| 100 | Michael Porter Jr. | BKN | $38.3M | Below apron | $31.7M | −$6.6M | Paying a premium |
| 101 | LaMelo Ball | CHA | $38.0M | Below apron | $31.1M | −$6.9M | Paying a premium |
| 102 | Scottie Barnes | TOR | $38.7M | Below apron | $31.7M | −$7.0M | Paying a premium |
| 103 | Cade Cunningham | DET | $46.4M | Below apron | $39.3M | −$7.1M | Paying a premium |
| 104 | Bam Adebayo | MIA | $37.1M | Below apron | $29.9M | −$7.2M | Paying a premium |
| 105 | Al Horford | GSW | $11.0M | First apron | $9.1M | −$7.4M | Albatross risk |
| 106 | Domantas Sabonis | SAC | $43.4M | Below apron | $35.3M | −$8.1M | Paying a premium |
| 107 | Brandon Ingram | TOR | $44.0M | Below apron | $35.9M | −$8.1M | Paying a premium |
| 108 | VJ Edgecombe | PHI | $12.4M | First apron | $10.0M | −$8.6M | Albatross risk |
| 109 | Lauri Markkanen | UTA | $46.4M | Below apron | $37.7M | −$8.7M | Paying a premium |
| 110 | Bobby Portis | MIL | $12.6M | First apron | $10.0M | −$8.9M | Albatross risk |
| 111 | Pascal Siakam | IND | $47.3M | Below apron | $38.3M | −$9.0M | Paying a premium |
| 112 | Zach LaVine | SAC | $48.0M | Below apron | $38.8M | −$9.2M | Paying a premium |
| 113 | Klay Thompson | DAL | $16.6M | First apron | $14.9M | −$10.0M | Albatross risk |
| 114 | Austin Reaves | LAL | $13.9M | First apron | $10.5M | −$10.3M | Albatross risk |
| 115 | Cooper Flagg | DAL | $13.9M | First apron | $10.5M | −$10.3M | Albatross risk |
| 116 | Rui Hachimura | LAL | $17.0M | First apron | $14.9M | −$10.6M | Albatross risk |
| 117 | Royce O'Neale | PHX | $9.5M | Second apron | $8.1M | −$10.9M | Albatross risk |
| 118 | Daniel Gafford | DAL | $18.1M | First apron | $16.1M | −$11.1M | Albatross risk |
| 119 | Luke Kornet | BOS | $10.0M | Second apron | $8.6M | −$11.4M | Albatross risk |
| 120 | Miles McBride | NYK | $9.8M | Second apron | $8.1M | −$11.5M | Albatross risk |
| 121 | Christian Braun | DEN | $19.4M | First apron | $16.6M | −$12.5M | Albatross risk |
| 122 | Mike Conley | MIN | $10.8M | Second apron | $9.1M | −$12.5M | Albatross risk |
| 123 | Payton Pritchard | BOS | $11.4M | Second apron | $9.1M | −$13.7M | Albatross risk |
| 124 | P.J. Washington | DAL | $22.0M | First apron | $18.4M | −$14.6M | Albatross risk |
| 125 | Cameron Johnson | DEN | $22.5M | First apron | $18.9M | −$14.8M | Albatross risk |
| 126 | Jabari Smith Jr. | HOU | $24.0M | First apron | $20.1M | −$15.9M | Albatross risk |
| 127 | Alperen Sengun | HOU | $33.9M | First apron | $34.7M | −$16.2M | Paying a premium |
| 128 | De'Aaron Fox | SAS | $37.1M | Below apron | $20.9M | −$16.2M | Albatross risk |
| 129 | Aaron Gordon | DEN | $24.7M | First apron | $20.7M | −$16.4M | Albatross risk |
| 130 | Kyle Kuzma | MIL | $24.9M | First apron | $20.7M | −$16.7M | Albatross risk |
| 131 | Nikola Jokic | DEN | $55.2M | First apron | $65.8M | −$17.0M | Paying a premium |
| 132 | Draymond Green | GSW | $25.8M | First apron | $21.2M | −$17.5M | Albatross risk |
| 133 | Mark Williams | PHX | $14.0M | Second apron | $10.5M | −$17.5M | Albatross risk |
| 134 | Naz Reid | MIN | $14.0M | Second apron | $10.5M | −$17.5M | Albatross risk |
| 135 | Max Strus | CLE | $16.0M | Second apron | $14.3M | −$17.7M | Albatross risk |
| 136 | Myles Turner | MIL | $26.8M | First apron | $22.4M | −$17.8M | Albatross risk |
| 137 | Grayson Allen | PHX | $17.5M | Second apron | $15.5M | −$19.5M | Albatross risk |
| 138 | Jalen Suggs | ORL | $30.0M | First apron | $25.1M | −$19.9M | Albatross risk |
| 139 | Luka Doncic | LAL | $45.9M | First apron | $48.4M | −$20.4M | Albatross risk |
| 140 | Trae Young | ATL | $46.0M | Below apron | $23.9M | −$22.1M | Albatross risk |
| 141 | Josh Hart | NYK | $20.0M | Second apron | $17.2M | −$22.8M | Albatross risk |
| 142 | Zion Williamson | NOP | $39.4M | Below apron | $16.5M | −$22.9M | Albatross risk |
| 143 | Kawhi Leonard | LAC | $50.0M | Below apron | $26.8M | −$23.2M | Albatross risk |
| 144 | Derrick White | BOS | $28.1M | Second apron | $32.1M | −$24.1M | Albatross risk |
| 145 | Dillon Brooks | PHX | $21.5M | Second apron | $18.4M | −$24.6M | Albatross risk |
| 146 | Ja Morant | MEM | $39.4M | Below apron | $14.2M | −$25.2M | Albatross risk |
| 147 | Desmond Bane | ORL | $37.9M | First apron | $31.1M | −$25.8M | Albatross risk |
| 148 | De'Andre Hunter | CLE | $22.4M | Second apron | $18.9M | −$25.9M | Albatross risk |
| 149 | Franz Wagner | ORL | $38.7M | First apron | $31.7M | −$26.3M | Albatross risk |
| 150 | Mikal Bridges | NYK | $24.9M | Second apron | $22.8M | −$27.0M | Albatross risk |
| 151 | Jalen Brunson | NYK | $34.9M | Second apron | $41.2M | −$28.6M | Albatross risk |
| 152 | Jaden McDaniels | MIN | $24.4M | Second apron | $20.1M | −$28.7M | Albatross risk |
| 153 | Tyrese Maxey | PHI | $37.9M | First apron | $27.9M | −$29.0M | Albatross risk |
| 154 | Jalen Green | PHX | $25.8M | Second apron | $21.2M | −$30.4M | Albatross risk |
| 155 | Anfernee Simons | BOS | $27.7M | Second apron | $23.0M | −$32.4M | Albatross risk |
| 156 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | MIL | $54.1M | First apron | $47.3M | −$33.9M | Albatross risk |
| 157 | Julius Randle | MIN | $30.9M | Second apron | $26.3M | −$35.5M | Albatross risk |
| 158 | Jarrett Allen | CLE | $32.0M | Second apron | $26.9M | −$37.1M | Albatross risk |
| 159 | Anthony Edwards | MIN | $45.6M | Second apron | $47.3M | −$43.9M | Albatross risk |
| 160 | Tyrese Haliburton | IND | $45.6M | Below apron | $0.0M | −$45.6M | Albatross risk |
| 161 | Rudy Gobert | MIN | $35.0M | Second apron | $22.6M | −$47.4M | Albatross risk |
| 162 | Darius Garland | CLE | $41.0M | Second apron | $33.5M | −$48.5M | Albatross risk |
| 163 | Jamal Murray | DEN | $46.4M | First apron | $20.0M | −$49.6M | Albatross risk |
| 164 | Kyrie Irving | DAL | $36.7M | First apron | $5.4M | −$49.7M | Albatross risk |
| 165 | OG Anunoby | NYK | $42.5M | Second apron | $34.7M | −$50.3M | Albatross risk |
| 166 | Kevin Durant | HOU | $54.7M | First apron | $30.3M | −$51.7M | Albatross risk |
| 167 | Donovan Mitchell | CLE | $46.4M | Second apron | $38.4M | −$54.4M | Albatross risk |
| 168 | Evan Mobley | CLE | $46.6M | Second apron | $38.3M | −$54.9M | Albatross risk |
| 169 | LeBron James | LAL | $52.6M | First apron | $23.0M | −$55.9M | Albatross risk |
| 170 | Jimmy Butler | GSW | $54.1M | First apron | $21.8M | −$59.3M | Albatross risk |
| 171 | Stephen Curry | GSW | $59.6M | First apron | $29.2M | −$60.2M | Albatross risk |
| 172 | Anthony Davis | DAL | $54.1M | First apron | $19.9M | −$61.2M | Albatross risk |
| 173 | Paul George | PHI | $51.7M | First apron | $8.7M | −$68.8M | Albatross risk |
| 174 | Joel Embiid | PHI | $55.2M | First apron | $8.8M | −$74.0M | Albatross risk |
| 175 | Jaylen Brown | BOS | $53.1M | Second apron | $29.9M | −$76.3M | Albatross risk |
| 176 | Devin Booker | PHX | $53.1M | Second apron | $27.5M | −$78.7M | Albatross risk |
| 177 | Karl-Anthony Towns | NYK | $53.1M | Second apron | $26.9M | −$79.3M | Albatross risk |
| 178 | Jayson Tatum | BOS | $54.1M | Second apron | $4.1M | −$104M | Albatross risk |
Swap any two tracked contracts. Each player’s value is repriced at his new team’s apron tier — the gap between the two is surplus created (or destroyed) by the cap alone. Runs on your slider assumptions.
+$4.1M of value created in transit
BOS banks +$30.9M of surplus: Kawhi Leonard reprices to $100M of true cost at the second apron, cheaper value than Jayson Tatum was returning.
LAC gives up −$26.8M of surplus: Jayson Tatum's $54.1M true cost at the below apron outruns the −$23.2M Kawhi Leonard provided.
Jayson Tatum's $54.1M is priced at 2.00× on BOS but 1.00× on LAC — moving the bigger salary toward the BOS tier is what creates +$4.1M of surplus, before either roster plays a game.
On value alone BOS is the better side of the deal (+$30.9M vs −$26.8M for LAC) — a clear win-one-side trade.
Legality read: Salaries are $4.1M apart (within the ~25% straight-swap tolerance), so this works as a one-for-one under standard matching rules.
What this ignores: Pure value only: this ignores positional fit, roster construction, draft compensation, health, and contract length. A real front office weighs all of them — the surplus math is the starting point of the conversation, not the end of it.
Computed under model defaults
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