Cameron Johnson
Albatross risk — −$14.8M on $72.9M still owed
Cameron Johnson projects to 5.4 marginal wins — $18.9M of on-court value — against an apron-adjusted true cost of $33.8M.
Albatross risk — −$14.8M on $72.9M still owed
At −$14.8M under water the deal drags the books; it still grades "needs-sweetener", so quietly canvassing the market beats waiting for it to worsen.
For $22.5M this season (3 yr, $72.9M total), you are buying 5.4 marginal wins of EPM production — $18.9M of value at $3.5M/win. Against an apron-adjusted true cost of $33.8M, that nets −$14.8M of surplus, 125th of 178 tracked contracts — it grades as an albatross.
If wins price up toward $4.2M/win and the apron tax eases, production value climbs to $26.2M and surplus swings to −$2.0M — fair value in the optimistic case.
If a marginal win is worth less and the apron bites harder, true cost rises to $39.4M and surplus falls to −$26.5M — an albatross in the pessimistic case; the verdict flips across the band.
Caution — the verdict flips somewhere across bear/base/bull assumptions. This call is assumption-sensitive, not settled.
This call changes under bear assumptions: Cameron Johnson grades Albatross risk in the bear case but Fairly pricedin the bull case — treat the verdict above as a live read of today’s sliders, not a settled fact.
The market's own numbers: a win costs what the middle of the league pays for it.
Every apron dollar is real money — the tax ledger, not the highlight reel, decides who wins the summer.
Banners hang forever. A marginal win today is worth almost any tomorrow, and the tax is the cost of doing business.
Wins you buy before you're ready are the most expensive wins in basketball — flexibility is the only asset that never ages.
The tenth man is closer to the star than the star's agent admits — pay for scarcity you can prove, not reputation.
1 of 5 desks disagree with the verdict above — that disagreement is the story.
Take the question to the docket →Similar money band ($22.4M vs $22.5M) and impact (1.3 vs 1.3); his deal grades albatross risk at −$25.9M.
Similar money band ($23.0M vs $22.5M) and impact (1.4 vs 1.3); his deal grades paying a premium at −$3.5M.
Similar money band ($22.0M vs $22.5M) and impact (1.2 vs 1.3); his deal grades paying a premium at −$3.6M.
How the model gets there.
The audit trail behind every figure in the memo above — six steps from raw on-court impact to the final surplus verdict, using the same sliders. Drag any assumption and the memo above updates with it.
AASV = wins × $/win − cap hit × apron multiplier. Set the knobs to your own front-office judgment — every number on this page updates live.
League estimated net rating (per 100 poss. vs. an average player), cached from stats.nba.com (seed snapshot).
Est. Impact = 1.3 · 2025-26 · 74 games · 2,400 minutes
Impact is credited above replacement level (-2.0), scaled by the possessions he actually played (minutes × 2.08/min), then converted at 30.5 net points per win.
(1.3 − (-2.0)) × 5,000 poss ÷ 100 = 165 net pts
165 ÷ 30.5 = 5.4 wins
Wins are priced at your $/win setting ($3.5M per win).
5.4 wins × $3.5M = $18.9M
DEN is a first apron team, so every Cameron Johnson dollar is charged at 1.50× — your setting for what that tier’s tax and roster restrictions really cost. Contract: 3 yrs · $72.9M remaining.
$22.5M cap hit × 1.50 = $33.8M
$18.9M − $33.8M = −$14.8M
Cameron Johnson costs more than he produces under these assumptions — the contract eats value.
First season on file — the trend view, and its tie-in to aging risk, unlocks once another season lands.