Franz Wagner
Albatross risk — −$26.3M on $224M still owed
Franz Wagner projects to 9.1 marginal wins — $31.7M of on-court value — against an apron-adjusted true cost of $58.0M.
Albatross risk — −$26.3M on $224M still owed
At −$26.3M under water the deal drags the books; it still grades "needs-sweetener", so quietly canvassing the market beats waiting for it to worsen.
For $38.7M this season (5 yr, $224M total), you are buying 9.1 marginal wins of EPM production — $31.7M of value at $3.5M/win. Against an apron-adjusted true cost of $58.0M, that nets −$26.3M of surplus, 149th of 178 tracked contracts — it grades as an albatross.
If wins price up toward $4.2M/win and the apron tax eases, production value climbs to $41.8M and surplus swings to −$6.6M — fair value in the optimistic case.
If a marginal win is worth less and the apron bites harder, true cost rises to $67.7M and surplus falls to −$44.9M — an albatross in the pessimistic case; the verdict flips across the band.
Caution — the verdict flips somewhere across bear/base/bull assumptions. This call is assumption-sensitive, not settled.
This call changes under bear assumptions: Franz Wagner grades Albatross risk in the bear case but Fairly pricedin the bull case — treat the verdict above as a live read of today’s sliders, not a settled fact.
The market's own numbers: a win costs what the middle of the league pays for it.
Every apron dollar is real money — the tax ledger, not the highlight reel, decides who wins the summer.
Banners hang forever. A marginal win today is worth almost any tomorrow, and the tax is the cost of doing business.
Wins you buy before you're ready are the most expensive wins in basketball — flexibility is the only asset that never ages.
The tenth man is closer to the star than the star's agent admits — pay for scarcity you can prove, not reputation.
1 of 5 desks disagree with the verdict above — that disagreement is the story.
Take the question to the docket →Similar money band ($38.7M vs $38.7M) and impact (3.3 vs 3.1); his deal grades paying a premium at −$7.0M.
Similar money band ($38.0M vs $38.7M) and impact (3.2 vs 3.1); his deal grades paying a premium at −$6.9M.
Similar money band ($38.3M vs $38.7M) and impact (3.3 vs 3.1); his deal grades paying a premium at −$6.6M.
How the model gets there.
The audit trail behind every figure in the memo above — six steps from raw on-court impact to the final surplus verdict, using the same sliders. Drag any assumption and the memo above updates with it.
AASV = wins × $/win − cap hit × apron multiplier. Set the knobs to your own front-office judgment — every number on this page updates live.
League estimated net rating (per 100 poss. vs. an average player), cached from stats.nba.com (seed snapshot).
Est. Impact = 3.1 · 2025-26 · 74 games · 2,600 minutes
Impact is credited above replacement level (-2.0), scaled by the possessions he actually played (minutes × 2.08/min), then converted at 30.5 net points per win.
(3.1 − (-2.0)) × 5,417 poss ÷ 100 = 276 net pts
276 ÷ 30.5 = 9.1 wins
Wins are priced at your $/win setting ($3.5M per win).
9.1 wins × $3.5M = $31.7M
ORL is a first apron team, so every Franz Wagner dollar is charged at 1.50× — your setting for what that tier’s tax and roster restrictions really cost. Contract: 5 yrs · $224M remaining.
$38.7M cap hit × 1.50 = $58.0M
$31.7M − $58.0M = −$26.3M
Franz Wagner costs more than he produces under these assumptions — the contract eats value.
First season on file — the trend view, and its tie-in to aging risk, unlocks once another season lands.