Kawhi Leonard
Albatross risk — −$23.2M on $103M still owed
Kawhi Leonard projects to 7.7 marginal wins — $26.8M of on-court value — against an apron-adjusted true cost of $50.0M.
Albatross risk — −$23.2M on $103M still owed
At −$23.2M under water the deal drags the books; it still grades "needs-sweetener", so quietly canvassing the market beats waiting for it to worsen.
For $50.0M this season (2 yr, $103M total), you are buying 7.7 marginal wins of EPM production — $26.8M of value at $3.5M/win. Against an apron-adjusted true cost of $50.0M, that nets −$23.2M of surplus, 143rd of 178 tracked contracts — it grades as an albatross.
If wins price up toward $4.2M/win and the apron tax eases, production value climbs to $34.9M and surplus swings to −$15.1M — an overpay in the optimistic case.
If a marginal win is worth less and the apron bites harder, true cost rises to $50.0M and surplus falls to −$30.4M — an albatross in the pessimistic case; the verdict flips across the band.
Caution — the verdict flips somewhere across bear/base/bull assumptions. This call is assumption-sensitive, not settled.
This call changes under bear assumptions: Kawhi Leonard grades Albatross risk in the bear case but Paying a premiumin the bull case — treat the verdict above as a live read of today’s sliders, not a settled fact.
The market's own numbers: a win costs what the middle of the league pays for it.
Every apron dollar is real money — the tax ledger, not the highlight reel, decides who wins the summer.
Banners hang forever. A marginal win today is worth almost any tomorrow, and the tax is the cost of doing business.
Wins you buy before you're ready are the most expensive wins in basketball — flexibility is the only asset that never ages.
The tenth man is closer to the star than the star's agent admits — pay for scarcity you can prove, not reputation.
1 of 5 desks disagree with the verdict above — that disagreement is the story.
Similar money band ($48.0M vs $50.0M) and impact (4.5 vs 3.9); his deal grades paying a premium at −$9.2M.
Similar money band ($47.3M vs $50.0M) and impact (4.4 vs 3.9); his deal grades paying a premium at −$9.0M.
Similar money band ($46.4M vs $50.0M) and impact (4.2 vs 3.9); his deal grades paying a premium at −$7.1M.
How the model gets there.
The audit trail behind every figure in the memo above — six steps from raw on-court impact to the final surplus verdict, using the same sliders. Drag any assumption and the memo above updates with it.
AASV = wins × $/win − cap hit × apron multiplier. Set the knobs to your own front-office judgment — every number on this page updates live.
League estimated net rating (per 100 poss. vs. an average player), cached from stats.nba.com (seed snapshot).
Est. Impact = 3.9 · 2025-26 · 57 games · 1,900 minutes
Impact is credited above replacement level (-2.0), scaled by the possessions he actually played (minutes × 2.08/min), then converted at 30.5 net points per win.
(3.9 − (-2.0)) × 3,958 poss ÷ 100 = 234 net pts
234 ÷ 30.5 = 7.7 wins
Wins are priced at your $/win setting ($3.5M per win).
7.7 wins × $3.5M = $26.8M
LAC is a below apron team, so every Kawhi Leonard dollar is charged at 1.00× — your setting for what that tier’s tax and roster restrictions really cost. Contract: 2 yrs · $103M remaining.
$50.0M cap hit × 1.00 = $50.0M
$26.8M − $50.0M = −$23.2M
Kawhi Leonard costs more than he produces under these assumptions — the contract eats value.
First season on file — the trend view, and its tie-in to aging risk, unlocks once another season lands.