Mark Williams
Albatross risk — −$17.5M on $29.4M still owed
Mark Williams projects to 3.0 marginal wins — $10.5M of on-court value — against an apron-adjusted true cost of $28.0M.
Albatross risk — −$17.5M on $29.4M still owed
At −$17.5M under water the deal drags the books; it still grades "needs-sweetener", so quietly canvassing the market beats waiting for it to worsen.
For $14.0M this season (2 yr, $29.4M total), you are buying 3.0 marginal wins of EPM production — $10.5M of value at $3.5M/win. Against an apron-adjusted true cost of $28.0M, that nets −$17.5M of surplus, 133rd of 178 tracked contracts — it grades as an albatross.
If wins price up toward $4.2M/win and the apron tax eases, production value climbs to $15.5M and surplus swings to −$9.0M — an overpay in the optimistic case.
If a marginal win is worth less and the apron bites harder, true cost rises to $31.5M and surplus falls to −$25.0M — an albatross in the pessimistic case; the verdict flips across the band.
Caution — the verdict flips somewhere across bear/base/bull assumptions. This call is assumption-sensitive, not settled.
This call changes under bear assumptions: Mark Williams grades Albatross risk in the bear case but Paying a premiumin the bull case — treat the verdict above as a live read of today’s sliders, not a settled fact.
The market's own numbers: a win costs what the middle of the league pays for it.
Every apron dollar is real money — the tax ledger, not the highlight reel, decides who wins the summer.
Banners hang forever. A marginal win today is worth almost any tomorrow, and the tax is the cost of doing business.
Wins you buy before you're ready are the most expensive wins in basketball — flexibility is the only asset that never ages.
The tenth man is closer to the star than the star's agent admits — pay for scarcity you can prove, not reputation.
1 of 5 desks disagree with the verdict above — that disagreement is the story.
Similar money band ($14.0M vs $14.0M) and impact (0.2 vs 0.2); his deal grades paying a premium at −$3.5M.
Similar money band ($14.0M vs $14.0M) and impact (0.2 vs 0.2); his deal grades albatross risk at −$17.5M.
Similar money band ($13.9M vs $14.0M) and impact (0.2 vs 0.2); his deal grades albatross risk at −$10.3M.
How the model gets there.
The audit trail behind every figure in the memo above — six steps from raw on-court impact to the final surplus verdict, using the same sliders. Drag any assumption and the memo above updates with it.
AASV = wins × $/win − cap hit × apron multiplier. Set the knobs to your own front-office judgment — every number on this page updates live.
League estimated net rating (per 100 poss. vs. an average player), cached from stats.nba.com (seed snapshot).
Est. Impact = 0.2 · 2025-26 · 70 games · 2,000 minutes
Impact is credited above replacement level (-2.0), scaled by the possessions he actually played (minutes × 2.08/min), then converted at 30.5 net points per win.
(0.2 − (-2.0)) × 4,167 poss ÷ 100 = 92 net pts
92 ÷ 30.5 = 3.0 wins
Wins are priced at your $/win setting ($3.5M per win).
3.0 wins × $3.5M = $10.5M
PHX is a second apron team, so every Mark Williams dollar is charged at 2.00× — your setting for what that tier’s tax and roster restrictions really cost. Contract: 2 yrs · $29.4M remaining.
$14.0M cap hit × 2.00 = $28.0M
$10.5M − $28.0M = −$17.5M
Mark Williams costs more than he produces under these assumptions — the contract eats value.
First season on file — the trend view, and its tie-in to aging risk, unlocks once another season lands.