Mikal Bridges
Albatross risk — −$27.0M on $175M still owed
Mikal Bridges projects to 6.5 marginal wins — $22.8M of on-court value — against an apron-adjusted true cost of $49.8M.
Albatross risk — −$27.0M on $175M still owed
The verdict swings from −$40.5M (bear) to −$12.2M (bull) — too assumption-sensitive to move on; let another season of data settle the call.
For $24.9M this season (5 yr, $175M total), you are buying 6.5 marginal wins of EPM production — $22.8M of value at $3.5M/win. Against an apron-adjusted true cost of $49.8M, that nets −$27.0M of surplus, 150th of 178 tracked contracts — it grades as an albatross.
If wins price up toward $4.2M/win and the apron tax eases, production value climbs to $31.3M and surplus swings to −$12.2M — an overpay in the optimistic case.
If a marginal win is worth less and the apron bites harder, true cost rises to $56.0M and surplus falls to −$40.5M — an albatross in the pessimistic case; the verdict flips across the band.
Caution — the verdict flips somewhere across bear/base/bull assumptions. This call is assumption-sensitive, not settled.
This call changes under bear assumptions: Mikal Bridges grades Albatross risk in the bear case but Paying a premiumin the bull case — treat the verdict above as a live read of today’s sliders, not a settled fact.
The market's own numbers: a win costs what the middle of the league pays for it.
Every apron dollar is real money — the tax ledger, not the highlight reel, decides who wins the summer.
Banners hang forever. A marginal win today is worth almost any tomorrow, and the tax is the cost of doing business.
Wins you buy before you're ready are the most expensive wins in basketball — flexibility is the only asset that never ages.
The tenth man is closer to the star than the star's agent admits — pay for scarcity you can prove, not reputation.
1 of 5 desks disagree with the verdict above — that disagreement is the story.
Take the question to the docket →Similar money band ($24.9M vs $24.9M) and impact (1.6 vs 1.4); his deal grades albatross risk at −$16.7M.
Similar money band ($25.0M vs $24.9M) and impact (1.6 vs 1.4); his deal grades paying a premium at −$4.3M.
Similar money band ($25.0M vs $24.9M) and impact (1.6 vs 1.4); his deal grades paying a premium at −$4.3M.
How the model gets there.
The audit trail behind every figure in the memo above — six steps from raw on-court impact to the final surplus verdict, using the same sliders. Drag any assumption and the memo above updates with it.
AASV = wins × $/win − cap hit × apron multiplier. Set the knobs to your own front-office judgment — every number on this page updates live.
League estimated net rating (per 100 poss. vs. an average player), cached from stats.nba.com (seed snapshot).
Est. Impact = 1.4 · 2025-26 · 78 games · 2,800 minutes
Impact is credited above replacement level (-2.0), scaled by the possessions he actually played (minutes × 2.08/min), then converted at 30.5 net points per win.
(1.4 − (-2.0)) × 5,833 poss ÷ 100 = 198 net pts
198 ÷ 30.5 = 6.5 wins
Wins are priced at your $/win setting ($3.5M per win).
6.5 wins × $3.5M = $22.8M
NYK is a second apron team, so every Mikal Bridges dollar is charged at 2.00× — your setting for what that tier’s tax and roster restrictions really cost. Contract: 5 yrs · $175M remaining.
$24.9M cap hit × 2.00 = $49.8M
$22.8M − $49.8M = −$27.0M
Mikal Bridges costs more than he produces under these assumptions — the contract eats value.
Mikal Bridges's impact is trending up (+0.4 across tracked seasons) — that upward line is why the aging-risk read stays at elevated rather than climbing.