Rudy Gobert
Albatross risk — −$47.4M on $110M still owed
Rudy Gobert projects to 6.5 marginal wins — $22.6M of on-court value — against an apron-adjusted true cost of $70.0M.
Albatross risk — −$47.4M on $110M still owed
−$47.4M sits close enough to fair (or too rigid to move) that the right play is patience, not a transaction.
For $35.0M this season (3 yr, $110M total), you are buying 6.5 marginal wins of EPM production — $22.6M of value at $3.5M/win. Against an apron-adjusted true cost of $70.0M, that nets −$47.4M of surplus, 161st of 178 tracked contracts — it grades as an albatross.
If wins price up toward $4.2M/win and the apron tax eases, production value climbs to $30.3M and surplus swings to −$30.9M — an albatross in the optimistic case.
If a marginal win is worth less and the apron bites harder, true cost rises to $78.8M and surplus falls to −$62.8M — an albatross in the pessimistic case.
The market's own numbers: a win costs what the middle of the league pays for it.
Every apron dollar is real money — the tax ledger, not the highlight reel, decides who wins the summer.
Banners hang forever. A marginal win today is worth almost any tomorrow, and the tax is the cost of doing business.
Wins you buy before you're ready are the most expensive wins in basketball — flexibility is the only asset that never ages.
The tenth man is closer to the star than the star's agent admits — pay for scarcity you can prove, not reputation.
1 of 5 desks disagree with the verdict above — that disagreement is the story.
Similar money band ($35.0M vs $35.0M) and impact (2.9 vs 2.2); his deal grades paying a premium at −$5.7M.
Similar money band ($34.0M vs $35.0M) and impact (2.8 vs 2.2); his deal grades paying a premium at −$5.3M.
Similar money band ($34.0M vs $35.0M) and impact (2.8 vs 2.2); his deal grades paying a premium at −$5.3M.
How the model gets there.
The audit trail behind every figure in the memo above — six steps from raw on-court impact to the final surplus verdict, using the same sliders. Drag any assumption and the memo above updates with it.
AASV = wins × $/win − cap hit × apron multiplier. Set the knobs to your own front-office judgment — every number on this page updates live.
League estimated net rating (per 100 poss. vs. an average player), cached from stats.nba.com (seed snapshot).
Est. Impact = 2.2 · 2025-26 · 69 games · 2,250 minutes
Impact is credited above replacement level (-2.0), scaled by the possessions he actually played (minutes × 2.08/min), then converted at 30.5 net points per win.
(2.2 − (-2.0)) × 4,688 poss ÷ 100 = 197 net pts
197 ÷ 30.5 = 6.5 wins
Wins are priced at your $/win setting ($3.5M per win).
6.5 wins × $3.5M = $22.6M
MIN is a second apron team, so every Rudy Gobert dollar is charged at 2.00× — your setting for what that tier’s tax and roster restrictions really cost. Contract: 3 yrs · $110M remaining.
$35.0M cap hit × 2.00 = $70.0M
$22.6M − $70.0M = −$47.4M
Rudy Gobert costs more than he produces under these assumptions — the contract eats value.
First season on file — the trend view, and its tie-in to aging risk, unlocks once another season lands.