Chet Holmgren
Top-4 surplus deal of 178 tracked contracts
Chet Holmgren projects to 7.7 marginal wins — $27.1M of on-court value — against an apron-adjusted true cost of $13.7M.
Top-4 surplus deal of 178 tracked contracts
Still worth +$13.4M of surplus today, but elevated forward risk on $264M argues for selling into strength rather than riding the decline.
For $13.7M this season (6 yr, $264M total), you are buying 7.7 marginal wins of EPM production — $27.1M of value at $3.5M/win. Against an apron-adjusted true cost of $13.7M, that nets +$13.4M of surplus, 4th of 178 tracked contracts — it grades as a bargain.
If wins price up toward $4.2M/win and the apron tax eases, production value climbs to $35.5M and surplus swings to +$21.8M — a bargain in the optimistic case.
If a marginal win is worth less and the apron bites harder, true cost rises to $13.7M and surplus falls to +$6.0M — a bargain in the pessimistic case.
The market's own numbers: a win costs what the middle of the league pays for it.
Every apron dollar is real money — the tax ledger, not the highlight reel, decides who wins the summer.
Banners hang forever. A marginal win today is worth almost any tomorrow, and the tax is the cost of doing business.
Wins you buy before you're ready are the most expensive wins in basketball — flexibility is the only asset that never ages.
The tenth man is closer to the star than the star's agent admits — pay for scarcity you can prove, not reputation.
1 of 5 desks disagree with the verdict above — that disagreement is the story.
Similar money band ($15.3M vs $13.7M) and impact (2.3 vs 3.4); his deal grades fairly priced at +$2.2M.
Similar money band ($6.6M vs $13.7M) and impact (4.6 vs 3.4); his deal grades bargain at +$32.8M.
Similar money band ($13.9M vs $13.7M) and impact (0.2 vs 3.4); his deal grades albatross risk at −$10.3M.
How the model gets there.
The audit trail behind every figure in the memo above — six steps from raw on-court impact to the final surplus verdict, using the same sliders. Drag any assumption and the memo above updates with it.
AASV = wins × $/win − cap hit × apron multiplier. Set the knobs to your own front-office judgment — every number on this page updates live.
League estimated net rating (per 100 poss. vs. an average player), cached from stats.nba.com (seed snapshot).
Est. Impact = 3.4 · 2025-26 · 68 games · 2,100 minutes
Impact is credited above replacement level (-2.0), scaled by the possessions he actually played (minutes × 2.08/min), then converted at 30.5 net points per win.
(3.4 − (-2.0)) × 4,375 poss ÷ 100 = 236 net pts
236 ÷ 30.5 = 7.7 wins
Wins are priced at your $/win setting ($3.5M per win).
7.7 wins × $3.5M = $27.1M
OKC is a below apron team, so every Chet Holmgren dollar is charged at 1.00× — your setting for what that tier’s tax and roster restrictions really cost. Contract: 6 yrs · $264M remaining.
$13.7M cap hit × 1.00 = $13.7M
$27.1M − $13.7M = +$13.4M
Chet Holmgren out-produces his true cost under these assumptions — a surplus asset.
Chet Holmgren's impact is trending down (-0.7 across tracked seasons) — that decline is a direct input into the elevated aging-risk grade on the years still owed.