Paolo Banchero
Priced about right — +$2.2M against true cost
Paolo Banchero projects to 7.2 marginal wins — $25.2M of on-court value — against an apron-adjusted true cost of $22.9M.
Priced about right — +$2.2M against true cost
The verdict swings from −$9.0M (bear) to +$14.6M (bull) — too assumption-sensitive to move on; let another season of data settle the call.
For $15.3M this season (6 yr, $303M total), you are buying 7.2 marginal wins of EPM production — $25.2M of value at $3.5M/win. Against an apron-adjusted true cost of $22.9M, that nets +$2.2M of surplus, 5th of 178 tracked contracts — it grades as fair value.
If wins price up toward $4.2M/win and the apron tax eases, production value climbs to $33.7M and surplus swings to +$14.6M — a bargain in the optimistic case.
If a marginal win is worth less and the apron bites harder, true cost rises to $26.8M and surplus falls to −$9.0M — an overpay in the pessimistic case; the verdict flips across the band.
Caution — the verdict flips somewhere across bear/base/bull assumptions. This call is assumption-sensitive, not settled.
This call changes under bear assumptions: Paolo Banchero grades Paying a premium in the bear case but Bargainin the bull case — treat the verdict above as a live read of today’s sliders, not a settled fact.
The market's own numbers: a win costs what the middle of the league pays for it.
Every apron dollar is real money — the tax ledger, not the highlight reel, decides who wins the summer.
Banners hang forever. A marginal win today is worth almost any tomorrow, and the tax is the cost of doing business.
Wins you buy before you're ready are the most expensive wins in basketball — flexibility is the only asset that never ages.
The tenth man is closer to the star than the star's agent admits — pay for scarcity you can prove, not reputation.
4 of 5 desks disagree with the verdict above — that disagreement is the story.
Take the question to the docket →Similar money band ($13.7M vs $15.3M) and impact (3.4 vs 2.3); his deal grades bargain at +$13.4M.
Similar money band ($15.8M vs $15.3M) and impact (0.5 vs 2.3); his deal grades fairly priced at −$1.5M.
Similar money band ($15.5M vs $15.3M) and impact (0.4 vs 2.3); his deal grades fairly priced at −$1.7M.
How the model gets there.
The audit trail behind every figure in the memo above — six steps from raw on-court impact to the final surplus verdict, using the same sliders. Drag any assumption and the memo above updates with it.
AASV = wins × $/win − cap hit × apron multiplier. Set the knobs to your own front-office judgment — every number on this page updates live.
League estimated net rating (per 100 poss. vs. an average player), cached from stats.nba.com (seed snapshot).
Est. Impact = 2.3 · 2025-26 · 70 games · 2,450 minutes
Impact is credited above replacement level (-2.0), scaled by the possessions he actually played (minutes × 2.08/min), then converted at 30.5 net points per win.
(2.3 − (-2.0)) × 5,104 poss ÷ 100 = 219 net pts
219 ÷ 30.5 = 7.2 wins
Wins are priced at your $/win setting ($3.5M per win).
7.2 wins × $3.5M = $25.2M
ORL is a first apron team, so every Paolo Banchero dollar is charged at 1.50× — your setting for what that tier’s tax and roster restrictions really cost. Contract: 6 yrs · $303M remaining.
$15.3M cap hit × 1.50 = $22.9M
$25.2M − $22.9M = +$2.2M
Paolo Banchero out-produces his true cost under these assumptions — a surplus asset.
First season on file — the trend view, and its tie-in to aging risk, unlocks once another season lands.