Darius Garland
Albatross risk — −$48.5M on $133M still owed
Darius Garland projects to 9.6 marginal wins — $33.5M of on-court value — against an apron-adjusted true cost of $82.0M.
Albatross risk — −$48.5M on $133M still owed
−$48.5M sits close enough to fair (or too rigid to move) that the right play is patience, not a transaction.
For $41.0M this season (3 yr, $133M total), you are buying 9.6 marginal wins of EPM production — $33.5M of value at $3.5M/win. Against an apron-adjusted true cost of $82.0M, that nets −$48.5M of surplus, 162nd of 178 tracked contracts — it grades as an albatross.
If wins price up toward $4.2M/win and the apron tax eases, production value climbs to $43.8M and surplus swings to −$28.0M — an albatross in the optimistic case.
If a marginal win is worth less and the apron bites harder, true cost rises to $92.3M and surplus falls to −$67.9M — an albatross in the pessimistic case.
The market's own numbers: a win costs what the middle of the league pays for it.
Every apron dollar is real money — the tax ledger, not the highlight reel, decides who wins the summer.
Banners hang forever. A marginal win today is worth almost any tomorrow, and the tax is the cost of doing business.
Wins you buy before you're ready are the most expensive wins in basketball — flexibility is the only asset that never ages.
The tenth man is closer to the star than the star's agent admits — pay for scarcity you can prove, not reputation.
1 of 5 desks disagree with the verdict above — that disagreement is the story.
Similar money band ($42.5M vs $41.0M) and impact (3.8 vs 3.6); his deal grades albatross risk at −$50.3M.
Similar money band ($38.7M vs $41.0M) and impact (3.3 vs 3.6); his deal grades paying a premium at −$7.0M.
Similar money band ($43.4M vs $41.0M) and impact (3.9 vs 3.6); his deal grades paying a premium at −$8.1M.
How the model gets there.
The audit trail behind every figure in the memo above — six steps from raw on-court impact to the final surplus verdict, using the same sliders. Drag any assumption and the memo above updates with it.
AASV = wins × $/win − cap hit × apron multiplier. Set the knobs to your own front-office judgment — every number on this page updates live.
League estimated net rating (per 100 poss. vs. an average player), cached from stats.nba.com (seed snapshot).
Est. Impact = 3.6 · 2025-26 · 72 games · 2,500 minutes
Impact is credited above replacement level (-2.0), scaled by the possessions he actually played (minutes × 2.08/min), then converted at 30.5 net points per win.
(3.6 − (-2.0)) × 5,208 poss ÷ 100 = 292 net pts
292 ÷ 30.5 = 9.6 wins
Wins are priced at your $/win setting ($3.5M per win).
9.6 wins × $3.5M = $33.5M
CLE is a second apron team, so every Darius Garland dollar is charged at 2.00× — your setting for what that tier’s tax and roster restrictions really cost. Contract: 3 yrs · $133M remaining.
$41.0M cap hit × 2.00 = $82.0M
$33.5M − $82.0M = −$48.5M
Darius Garland costs more than he produces under these assumptions — the contract eats value.
First season on file — the trend view, and its tie-in to aging risk, unlocks once another season lands.