OG Anunoby
Albatross risk — −$50.3M on $138M still owed
OG Anunoby projects to 9.9 marginal wins — $34.7M of on-court value — against an apron-adjusted true cost of $85.0M.
Albatross risk — −$50.3M on $138M still owed
−$50.3M sits close enough to fair (or too rigid to move) that the right play is patience, not a transaction.
For $42.5M this season (3 yr, $138M total), you are buying 9.9 marginal wins of EPM production — $34.7M of value at $3.5M/win. Against an apron-adjusted true cost of $85.0M, that nets −$50.3M of surplus, 165th of 178 tracked contracts — it grades as an albatross.
If wins price up toward $4.2M/win and the apron tax eases, production value climbs to $45.2M and surplus swings to −$29.2M — an albatross in the optimistic case.
If a marginal win is worth less and the apron bites harder, true cost rises to $95.6M and surplus falls to −$70.3M — an albatross in the pessimistic case.
The market's own numbers: a win costs what the middle of the league pays for it.
Every apron dollar is real money — the tax ledger, not the highlight reel, decides who wins the summer.
Banners hang forever. A marginal win today is worth almost any tomorrow, and the tax is the cost of doing business.
Wins you buy before you're ready are the most expensive wins in basketball — flexibility is the only asset that never ages.
The tenth man is closer to the star than the star's agent admits — pay for scarcity you can prove, not reputation.
1 of 5 desks disagree with the verdict above — that disagreement is the story.
Similar money band ($43.4M vs $42.5M) and impact (3.9 vs 3.8); his deal grades paying a premium at −$8.1M.
Similar money band ($41.0M vs $42.5M) and impact (3.6 vs 3.8); his deal grades albatross risk at −$48.5M.
Similar money band ($44.0M vs $42.5M) and impact (4.0 vs 3.8); his deal grades paying a premium at −$8.1M.
How the model gets there.
The audit trail behind every figure in the memo above — six steps from raw on-court impact to the final surplus verdict, using the same sliders. Drag any assumption and the memo above updates with it.
AASV = wins × $/win − cap hit × apron multiplier. Set the knobs to your own front-office judgment — every number on this page updates live.
League estimated net rating (per 100 poss. vs. an average player), cached from stats.nba.com (seed snapshot).
Est. Impact = 3.8 · 2025-26 · 72 games · 2,500 minutes
Impact is credited above replacement level (-2.0), scaled by the possessions he actually played (minutes × 2.08/min), then converted at 30.5 net points per win.
(3.8 − (-2.0)) × 5,208 poss ÷ 100 = 302 net pts
302 ÷ 30.5 = 9.9 wins
Wins are priced at your $/win setting ($3.5M per win).
9.9 wins × $3.5M = $34.7M
NYK is a second apron team, so every OG Anunoby dollar is charged at 2.00× — your setting for what that tier’s tax and roster restrictions really cost. Contract: 3 yrs · $138M remaining.
$42.5M cap hit × 2.00 = $85.0M
$34.7M − $85.0M = −$50.3M
OG Anunoby costs more than he produces under these assumptions — the contract eats value.
First season on file — the trend view, and its tie-in to aging risk, unlocks once another season lands.