Donovan Mitchell
Albatross risk — −$54.4M on $150M still owed
Donovan Mitchell projects to 11.0 marginal wins — $38.4M of on-court value — against an apron-adjusted true cost of $92.8M.
Albatross risk — −$54.4M on $150M still owed
−$54.4M sits close enough to fair (or too rigid to move) that the right play is patience, not a transaction.
For $46.4M this season (3 yr, $150M total), you are buying 11.0 marginal wins of EPM production — $38.4M of value at $3.5M/win. Against an apron-adjusted true cost of $92.8M, that nets −$54.4M of surplus, 167th of 178 tracked contracts — it grades as an albatross.
If wins price up toward $4.2M/win and the apron tax eases, production value climbs to $49.6M and surplus swings to −$31.6M — an albatross in the optimistic case.
If a marginal win is worth less and the apron bites harder, true cost rises to $104M and surplus falls to −$75.9M — an albatross in the pessimistic case.
The market's own numbers: a win costs what the middle of the league pays for it.
Every apron dollar is real money — the tax ledger, not the highlight reel, decides who wins the summer.
Banners hang forever. A marginal win today is worth almost any tomorrow, and the tax is the cost of doing business.
Wins you buy before you're ready are the most expensive wins in basketball — flexibility is the only asset that never ages.
The tenth man is closer to the star than the star's agent admits — pay for scarcity you can prove, not reputation.
1 of 5 desks disagree with the verdict above — that disagreement is the story.
Similar money band ($46.6M vs $46.4M) and impact (4.4 vs 4.7); his deal grades albatross risk at −$54.9M.
Similar money band ($46.4M vs $46.4M) and impact (4.3 vs 4.7); his deal grades paying a premium at −$8.7M.
Similar money band ($46.4M vs $46.4M) and impact (4.2 vs 4.7); his deal grades paying a premium at −$7.1M.
How the model gets there.
The audit trail behind every figure in the memo above — six steps from raw on-court impact to the final surplus verdict, using the same sliders. Drag any assumption and the memo above updates with it.
AASV = wins × $/win − cap hit × apron multiplier. Set the knobs to your own front-office judgment — every number on this page updates live.
League estimated net rating (per 100 poss. vs. an average player), cached from stats.nba.com (seed snapshot).
Est. Impact = 4.7 · 2025-26 · 70 games · 2,400 minutes
Impact is credited above replacement level (-2.0), scaled by the possessions he actually played (minutes × 2.08/min), then converted at 30.5 net points per win.
(4.7 − (-2.0)) × 5,000 poss ÷ 100 = 335 net pts
335 ÷ 30.5 = 11.0 wins
Wins are priced at your $/win setting ($3.5M per win).
11.0 wins × $3.5M = $38.4M
CLE is a second apron team, so every Donovan Mitchell dollar is charged at 2.00× — your setting for what that tier’s tax and roster restrictions really cost. Contract: 3 yrs · $150M remaining.
$46.4M cap hit × 2.00 = $92.8M
$38.4M − $92.8M = −$54.4M
Donovan Mitchell costs more than he produces under these assumptions — the contract eats value.
Donovan Mitchell's impact is trending down (-0.8 across tracked seasons) — that decline is a direct input into the elevated aging-risk grade on the years still owed.