Evan Mobley
Albatross risk — −$54.9M on $269M still owed
Evan Mobley projects to 10.9 marginal wins — $38.3M of on-court value — against an apron-adjusted true cost of $93.2M.
Albatross risk — −$54.9M on $269M still owed
−$54.9M sits close enough to fair (or too rigid to move) that the right play is patience, not a transaction.
For $46.6M this season (5 yr, $269M total), you are buying 10.9 marginal wins of EPM production — $38.3M of value at $3.5M/win. Against an apron-adjusted true cost of $93.2M, that nets −$54.9M of surplus, 168th of 178 tracked contracts — it grades as an albatross.
If wins price up toward $4.2M/win and the apron tax eases, production value climbs to $49.5M and surplus swings to −$32.1M — an albatross in the optimistic case.
If a marginal win is worth less and the apron bites harder, true cost rises to $105M and surplus falls to −$76.6M — an albatross in the pessimistic case.
The market's own numbers: a win costs what the middle of the league pays for it.
Every apron dollar is real money — the tax ledger, not the highlight reel, decides who wins the summer.
Banners hang forever. A marginal win today is worth almost any tomorrow, and the tax is the cost of doing business.
Wins you buy before you're ready are the most expensive wins in basketball — flexibility is the only asset that never ages.
The tenth man is closer to the star than the star's agent admits — pay for scarcity you can prove, not reputation.
1 of 5 desks disagree with the verdict above — that disagreement is the story.
Similar money band ($46.4M vs $46.6M) and impact (4.3 vs 4.4); his deal grades paying a premium at −$8.7M.
Similar money band ($47.3M vs $46.6M) and impact (4.4 vs 4.4); his deal grades paying a premium at −$9.0M.
Similar money band ($46.4M vs $46.6M) and impact (4.2 vs 4.4); his deal grades paying a premium at −$7.1M.
How the model gets there.
The audit trail behind every figure in the memo above — six steps from raw on-court impact to the final surplus verdict, using the same sliders. Drag any assumption and the memo above updates with it.
AASV = wins × $/win − cap hit × apron multiplier. Set the knobs to your own front-office judgment — every number on this page updates live.
League estimated net rating (per 100 poss. vs. an average player), cached from stats.nba.com (seed snapshot).
Est. Impact = 4.4 · 2025-26 · 73 games · 2,500 minutes
Impact is credited above replacement level (-2.0), scaled by the possessions he actually played (minutes × 2.08/min), then converted at 30.5 net points per win.
(4.4 − (-2.0)) × 5,208 poss ÷ 100 = 333 net pts
333 ÷ 30.5 = 10.9 wins
Wins are priced at your $/win setting ($3.5M per win).
10.9 wins × $3.5M = $38.3M
CLE is a second apron team, so every Evan Mobley dollar is charged at 2.00× — your setting for what that tier’s tax and roster restrictions really cost. Contract: 5 yrs · $269M remaining.
$46.6M cap hit × 2.00 = $93.2M
$38.3M − $93.2M = −$54.9M
Evan Mobley costs more than he produces under these assumptions — the contract eats value.
Evan Mobley's impact is trending up (+1.2 across tracked seasons) — that upward line is why the aging-risk read stays at elevated rather than climbing.