Jalen Brunson
Albatross risk — −$28.6M on $157M still owed
Jalen Brunson projects to 11.8 marginal wins — $41.2M of on-court value — against an apron-adjusted true cost of $69.8M.
Albatross risk — −$28.6M on $157M still owed
The verdict swings from −$47.9M (bear) to −$8.0M (bull) — too assumption-sensitive to move on; let another season of data settle the call.
For $34.9M this season (4 yr, $157M total), you are buying 11.8 marginal wins of EPM production — $41.2M of value at $3.5M/win. Against an apron-adjusted true cost of $69.8M, that nets −$28.6M of surplus, 151st of 178 tracked contracts — it grades as an albatross.
If wins price up toward $4.2M/win and the apron tax eases, production value climbs to $53.1M and surplus swings to −$8.0M — fair value in the optimistic case.
If a marginal win is worth less and the apron bites harder, true cost rises to $78.5M and surplus falls to −$47.9M — an albatross in the pessimistic case; the verdict flips across the band.
Caution — the verdict flips somewhere across bear/base/bull assumptions. This call is assumption-sensitive, not settled.
This call changes under bear assumptions: Jalen Brunson grades Albatross risk in the bear case but Fairly pricedin the bull case — treat the verdict above as a live read of today’s sliders, not a settled fact.
The market's own numbers: a win costs what the middle of the league pays for it.
Every apron dollar is real money — the tax ledger, not the highlight reel, decides who wins the summer.
Banners hang forever. A marginal win today is worth almost any tomorrow, and the tax is the cost of doing business.
Wins you buy before you're ready are the most expensive wins in basketball — flexibility is the only asset that never ages.
The tenth man is closer to the star than the star's agent admits — pay for scarcity you can prove, not reputation.
1 of 5 desks disagree with the verdict above — that disagreement is the story.
Take the question to the docket →Similar money band ($33.9M vs $34.9M) and impact (3.8 vs 4.9); his deal grades paying a premium at −$16.2M.
Similar money band ($35.0M vs $34.9M) and impact (2.9 vs 4.9); his deal grades paying a premium at −$5.7M.
Similar money band ($36.3M vs $34.9M) and impact (3.0 vs 4.9); his deal grades paying a premium at −$6.4M.
How the model gets there.
The audit trail behind every figure in the memo above — six steps from raw on-court impact to the final surplus verdict, using the same sliders. Drag any assumption and the memo above updates with it.
AASV = wins × $/win − cap hit × apron multiplier. Set the knobs to your own front-office judgment — every number on this page updates live.
League estimated net rating (per 100 poss. vs. an average player), cached from stats.nba.com (seed snapshot).
Est. Impact = 4.9 · 2025-26 · 72 games · 2,500 minutes
Impact is credited above replacement level (-2.0), scaled by the possessions he actually played (minutes × 2.08/min), then converted at 30.5 net points per win.
(4.9 − (-2.0)) × 5,208 poss ÷ 100 = 359 net pts
359 ÷ 30.5 = 11.8 wins
Wins are priced at your $/win setting ($3.5M per win).
11.8 wins × $3.5M = $41.2M
NYK is a second apron team, so every Jalen Brunson dollar is charged at 2.00× — your setting for what that tier’s tax and roster restrictions really cost. Contract: 4 yrs · $157M remaining.
$34.9M cap hit × 2.00 = $69.8M
$41.2M − $69.8M = −$28.6M
Jalen Brunson costs more than he produces under these assumptions — the contract eats value.
Jalen Brunson's impact is trending up (+1.1 across tracked seasons) — that upward line is why the aging-risk read stays at elevated rather than climbing.