Joel Embiid
Albatross risk — −$74.0M on $241M still owed
Joel Embiid projects to 2.5 marginal wins — $8.8M of on-court value — against an apron-adjusted true cost of $82.8M.
Albatross risk — −$74.0M on $241M still owed
At −$74.0M under water the deal drags the books; it still grades "needs-sweetener", so quietly canvassing the market beats waiting for it to worsen.
For $55.2M this season (4 yr, $241M total), you are buying 2.5 marginal wins of EPM production — $8.8M of value at $3.5M/win. Against an apron-adjusted true cost of $82.8M, that nets −$74.0M of surplus, 174th of 178 tracked contracts — it grades as an albatross.
If wins price up toward $4.2M/win and the apron tax eases, production value climbs to $11.9M and surplus swings to −$57.1M — an albatross in the optimistic case.
If a marginal win is worth less and the apron bites harder, true cost rises to $96.6M and surplus falls to −$90.4M — an albatross in the pessimistic case.
The market's own numbers: a win costs what the middle of the league pays for it.
Every apron dollar is real money — the tax ledger, not the highlight reel, decides who wins the summer.
Banners hang forever. A marginal win today is worth almost any tomorrow, and the tax is the cost of doing business.
Wins you buy before you're ready are the most expensive wins in basketball — flexibility is the only asset that never ages.
The tenth man is closer to the star than the star's agent admits — pay for scarcity you can prove, not reputation.
Similar money band ($54.1M vs $55.2M) and impact (2.5 vs 2.1); his deal grades albatross risk at −$104M.
Similar money band ($54.1M vs $55.2M) and impact (2.8 vs 2.1); his deal grades albatross risk at −$59.3M.
Similar money band ($53.1M vs $55.2M) and impact (2.6 vs 2.1); his deal grades albatross risk at −$78.7M.
How the model gets there.
The audit trail behind every figure in the memo above — six steps from raw on-court impact to the final surplus verdict, using the same sliders. Drag any assumption and the memo above updates with it.
AASV = wins × $/win − cap hit × apron multiplier. Set the knobs to your own front-office judgment — every number on this page updates live.
League estimated net rating (per 100 poss. vs. an average player), cached from stats.nba.com (seed snapshot).
Est. Impact = 2.1 · 2025-26 · 30 games · 900 minutes
Impact is credited above replacement level (-2.0), scaled by the possessions he actually played (minutes × 2.08/min), then converted at 30.5 net points per win.
(2.1 − (-2.0)) × 1,875 poss ÷ 100 = 77 net pts
77 ÷ 30.5 = 2.5 wins
Wins are priced at your $/win setting ($3.5M per win).
2.5 wins × $3.5M = $8.8M
PHI is a first apron team, so every Joel Embiid dollar is charged at 1.50× — your setting for what that tier’s tax and roster restrictions really cost. Contract: 4 yrs · $241M remaining.
$55.2M cap hit × 1.50 = $82.8M
$8.8M − $82.8M = −$74.0M
Joel Embiid costs more than he produces under these assumptions — the contract eats value.
First season on file — the trend view, and its tie-in to aging risk, unlocks once another season lands.