Onyeka Okongwu
Priced about right — −$2.9M against true cost
Onyeka Okongwu projects to 4.8 marginal wins — $16.6M of on-court value — against an apron-adjusted true cost of $19.5M.
Priced about right — −$2.9M against true cost
The verdict swings from −$8.5M (bear) to +$3.9M (bull) — too assumption-sensitive to move on; let another season of data settle the call.
For $19.5M this season (2 yr, $41.0M total), you are buying 4.8 marginal wins of EPM production — $16.6M of value at $3.5M/win. Against an apron-adjusted true cost of $19.5M, that nets −$2.9M of surplus, 58th of 178 tracked contracts — it grades as fair value.
If wins price up toward $4.2M/win and the apron tax eases, production value climbs to $23.4M and surplus swings to +$3.9M — fair value in the optimistic case.
If a marginal win is worth less and the apron bites harder, true cost rises to $19.5M and surplus falls to −$8.5M — an albatross in the pessimistic case; the verdict flips across the band.
Caution — the verdict flips somewhere across bear/base/bull assumptions. This call is assumption-sensitive, not settled.
This call changes under bear assumptions: Onyeka Okongwu grades Albatross risk in the bear case but Fairly pricedin the bull case — treat the verdict above as a live read of today’s sliders, not a settled fact.
The market's own numbers: a win costs what the middle of the league pays for it.
Every apron dollar is real money — the tax ledger, not the highlight reel, decides who wins the summer.
Banners hang forever. A marginal win today is worth almost any tomorrow, and the tax is the cost of doing business.
Wins you buy before you're ready are the most expensive wins in basketball — flexibility is the only asset that never ages.
The tenth man is closer to the star than the star's agent admits — pay for scarcity you can prove, not reputation.
4 of 5 desks disagree with the verdict above — that disagreement is the story.
Take the question to the docket →Similar money band ($19.5M vs $19.5M) and impact (0.9 vs 0.9); his deal grades fairly priced at −$2.9M.
Similar money band ($19.5M vs $19.5M) and impact (0.9 vs 0.9); his deal grades fairly priced at −$2.9M.
Similar money band ($19.4M vs $19.5M) and impact (0.9 vs 0.9); his deal grades albatross risk at −$12.5M.
How the model gets there.
The audit trail behind every figure in the memo above — six steps from raw on-court impact to the final surplus verdict, using the same sliders. Drag any assumption and the memo above updates with it.
AASV = wins × $/win − cap hit × apron multiplier. Set the knobs to your own front-office judgment — every number on this page updates live.
League estimated net rating (per 100 poss. vs. an average player), cached from stats.nba.com (seed snapshot).
Est. Impact = 0.9 · 2025-26 · 74 games · 2,400 minutes
Impact is credited above replacement level (-2.0), scaled by the possessions he actually played (minutes × 2.08/min), then converted at 30.5 net points per win.
(0.9 − (-2.0)) × 5,000 poss ÷ 100 = 145 net pts
145 ÷ 30.5 = 4.8 wins
Wins are priced at your $/win setting ($3.5M per win).
4.8 wins × $3.5M = $16.6M
ATL is a below apron team, so every Onyeka Okongwu dollar is charged at 1.00× — your setting for what that tier’s tax and roster restrictions really cost. Contract: 2 yrs · $41.0M remaining.
$19.5M cap hit × 1.00 = $19.5M
$16.6M − $19.5M = −$2.9M
Onyeka Okongwu costs more than he produces under these assumptions — the contract eats value.
First season on file — the trend view, and its tie-in to aging risk, unlocks once another season lands.