Payton Pritchard
Albatross risk — −$13.7M on $36.9M still owed
Payton Pritchard projects to 2.6 marginal wins — $9.1M of on-court value — against an apron-adjusted true cost of $22.8M.
Albatross risk — −$13.7M on $36.9M still owed
At −$13.7M under water the deal drags the books; it still grades "needs-sweetener", so quietly canvassing the market beats waiting for it to worsen.
For $11.4M this season (3 yr, $36.9M total), you are buying 2.6 marginal wins of EPM production — $9.1M of value at $3.5M/win. Against an apron-adjusted true cost of $22.8M, that nets −$13.7M of surplus, 123rd of 178 tracked contracts — it grades as an albatross.
If wins price up toward $4.2M/win and the apron tax eases, production value climbs to $13.8M and surplus swings to −$6.2M — an overpay in the optimistic case.
If a marginal win is worth less and the apron bites harder, true cost rises to $25.6M and surplus falls to −$20.3M — an albatross in the pessimistic case; the verdict flips across the band.
Caution — the verdict flips somewhere across bear/base/bull assumptions. This call is assumption-sensitive, not settled.
This call changes under bear assumptions: Payton Pritchard grades Albatross risk in the bear case but Paying a premiumin the bull case — treat the verdict above as a live read of today’s sliders, not a settled fact.
The market's own numbers: a win costs what the middle of the league pays for it.
Every apron dollar is real money — the tax ledger, not the highlight reel, decides who wins the summer.
Banners hang forever. A marginal win today is worth almost any tomorrow, and the tax is the cost of doing business.
Wins you buy before you're ready are the most expensive wins in basketball — flexibility is the only asset that never ages.
The tenth man is closer to the star than the star's agent admits — pay for scarcity you can prove, not reputation.
1 of 5 desks disagree with the verdict above — that disagreement is the story.
Take the question to the docket →Similar money band ($11.5M vs $11.4M) and impact (-0.1 vs -0.1); his deal grades paying a premium at −$2.4M.
Similar money band ($11.6M vs $11.4M) and impact (-0.1 vs -0.1); his deal grades paying a premium at −$2.5M.
Similar money band ($11.0M vs $11.4M) and impact (-0.1 vs -0.1); his deal grades albatross risk at −$7.4M.
How the model gets there.
The audit trail behind every figure in the memo above — six steps from raw on-court impact to the final surplus verdict, using the same sliders. Drag any assumption and the memo above updates with it.
AASV = wins × $/win − cap hit × apron multiplier. Set the knobs to your own front-office judgment — every number on this page updates live.
League estimated net rating (per 100 poss. vs. an average player), cached from stats.nba.com (seed snapshot).
Est. Impact = -0.1 · 2025-26 · 70 games · 2,000 minutes
Impact is credited above replacement level (-2.0), scaled by the possessions he actually played (minutes × 2.08/min), then converted at 30.5 net points per win.
(-0.1 − (-2.0)) × 4,167 poss ÷ 100 = 79 net pts
79 ÷ 30.5 = 2.6 wins
Wins are priced at your $/win setting ($3.5M per win).
2.6 wins × $3.5M = $9.1M
BOS is a second apron team, so every Payton Pritchard dollar is charged at 2.00× — your setting for what that tier’s tax and roster restrictions really cost. Contract: 3 yrs · $36.9M remaining.
$11.4M cap hit × 2.00 = $22.8M
$9.1M − $22.8M = −$13.7M
Payton Pritchard costs more than he produces under these assumptions — the contract eats value.
First season on file — the trend view, and its tie-in to aging risk, unlocks once another season lands.