Trae Young
Albatross risk — −$22.1M on $94.8M still owed
Trae Young projects to 6.8 marginal wins — $23.9M of on-court value — against an apron-adjusted true cost of $46.0M.
Albatross risk — −$22.1M on $94.8M still owed
At −$22.1M under water the deal drags the books; it still grades "needs-sweetener", so quietly canvassing the market beats waiting for it to worsen.
For $46.0M this season (2 yr, $94.8M total), you are buying 6.8 marginal wins of BPM production — $23.9M of value at $3.5M/win. Against an apron-adjusted true cost of $46.0M, that nets −$22.1M of surplus, 140th of 178 tracked contracts — it grades as an albatross.
If wins price up toward $4.2M/win and the apron tax eases, production value climbs to $32.3M and surplus swings to −$13.7M — an overpay in the optimistic case.
If a marginal win is worth less and the apron bites harder, true cost rises to $46.0M and surplus falls to −$29.3M — an albatross in the pessimistic case; the verdict flips across the band.
Caution — the verdict flips somewhere across bear/base/bull assumptions. This call is assumption-sensitive, not settled.
This call changes under bear assumptions: Trae Young grades Albatross risk in the bear case but Paying a premiumin the bull case — treat the verdict above as a live read of today’s sliders, not a settled fact.
The market's own numbers: a win costs what the middle of the league pays for it.
Every apron dollar is real money — the tax ledger, not the highlight reel, decides who wins the summer.
Banners hang forever. A marginal win today is worth almost any tomorrow, and the tax is the cost of doing business.
Wins you buy before you're ready are the most expensive wins in basketball — flexibility is the only asset that never ages.
The tenth man is closer to the star than the star's agent admits — pay for scarcity you can prove, not reputation.
1 of 5 desks disagree with the verdict above — that disagreement is the story.
Similar money band ($46.4M vs $46.0M) and impact (1.9 vs 2.0); his deal grades albatross risk at −$49.6M.
Similar money band ($39.4M vs $46.0M) and impact (1.7 vs 2.0); his deal grades albatross risk at −$25.2M.
Similar money band ($45.6M vs $46.0M) and impact (0.0 vs 2.0); his deal grades albatross risk at −$45.6M.
How the model gets there.
The audit trail behind every figure in the memo above — six steps from raw on-court impact to the final surplus verdict, using the same sliders. Drag any assumption and the memo above updates with it.
AASV = wins × $/win − cap hit × apron multiplier. Set the knobs to your own front-office judgment — every number on this page updates live.
No est. impact metric on file — falling back to Box Plus/Minus from the editable snapshot.
BPM = 2.0 · 2025-26 · 70 games · 2,500 minutes
Impact is credited above replacement level (-2.0), scaled by the possessions he actually played (minutes × 2.08/min), then converted at 30.5 net points per win.
(2.0 − (-2.0)) × 5,208 poss ÷ 100 = 208 net pts
208 ÷ 30.5 = 6.8 wins
Wins are priced at your $/win setting ($3.5M per win).
6.8 wins × $3.5M = $23.9M
ATL is a below apron team, so every Trae Young dollar is charged at 1.00× — your setting for what that tier’s tax and roster restrictions really cost. Contract: 2 yrs · $94.8M remaining.
$46.0M cap hit × 1.00 = $46.0M
$23.9M − $46.0M = −$22.1M
Trae Young costs more than he produces under these assumptions — the contract eats value.
First season on file — the trend view, and its tie-in to aging risk, unlocks once another season lands.