Tyrese Haliburton
Albatross risk — −$45.6M on $208M still owed
Tyrese Haliburton projects to 0.0 marginal wins — $0.0M of on-court value — against an apron-adjusted true cost of $45.6M.
Albatross risk — −$45.6M on $208M still owed
At −$45.6M under water the deal drags the books; it still grades "needs-sweetener", so quietly canvassing the market beats waiting for it to worsen.
For $45.6M this season (4 yr, $208M total), you are buying 0.0 marginal wins of impact production — $0.0M of value at $3.5M/win. Against an apron-adjusted true cost of $45.6M, that nets −$45.6M of surplus, 160th of 178 tracked contracts — it grades as an albatross.
If wins price up toward $0.0M/win and the apron tax eases, production value climbs to $0.0M and surplus swings to −$45.6M — an albatross in the optimistic case.
If a marginal win is worth less and the apron bites harder, true cost rises to $45.6M and surplus falls to −$45.6M — an albatross in the pessimistic case.
The market's own numbers: a win costs what the middle of the league pays for it.
Every apron dollar is real money — the tax ledger, not the highlight reel, decides who wins the summer.
Banners hang forever. A marginal win today is worth almost any tomorrow, and the tax is the cost of doing business.
Wins you buy before you're ready are the most expensive wins in basketball — flexibility is the only asset that never ages.
The tenth man is closer to the star than the star's agent admits — pay for scarcity you can prove, not reputation.
Similar money band ($46.0M vs $45.6M) and impact (2.0 vs 0.0); his deal grades albatross risk at −$22.1M.
Similar money band ($46.4M vs $45.6M) and impact (1.9 vs 0.0); his deal grades albatross risk at −$49.6M.
Similar money band ($51.7M vs $45.6M) and impact (0.6 vs 0.0); his deal grades albatross risk at −$68.8M.
How the model gets there.
The audit trail behind every figure in the memo above — six steps from raw on-court impact to the final surplus verdict, using the same sliders. Drag any assumption and the memo above updates with it.
AASV = wins × $/win − cap hit × apron multiplier. Set the knobs to your own front-office judgment — every number on this page updates live.
No impact metric is on file for Tyrese Haliburton this season (hasn’t played), so his production value is $0 and AASV is simply the negative of his true contract cost — what a lost season actually costs the cap sheet.
No advanced metric available for this season.
impact = — · 2025-26 · 0 games · 0 minutes
Impact is credited above replacement level (-2.0), scaled by the possessions he actually played (minutes × 2.08/min), then converted at 30.5 net points per win.
(0.0 − (-2.0)) × 0 poss ÷ 100 = 0 net pts
0 ÷ 30.5 = 0.0 wins
Wins are priced at your $/win setting ($3.5M per win).
0.0 wins × $3.5M = $0.0M
IND is a below apron team, so every Tyrese Haliburton dollar is charged at 1.00× — your setting for what that tier’s tax and roster restrictions really cost. Contract: 4 yrs · $208M remaining.
$45.6M cap hit × 1.00 = $45.6M
$0.0M − $45.6M = −$45.6M
Tyrese Haliburton costs more than he produces under these assumptions — the contract eats value.
First season on file — the trend view, and its tie-in to aging risk, unlocks once another season lands.