Aging cliffheat 78
Has Jayson Tatum's impact actually fallen off a cliff, or is a 3.3-point drop from 2023-24 to 2025-26 just variance — with $314M over 5 years still owed, can the front office afford to wait and see?
Tracked impact moved from 5.8 in 2023-24 to 2.5 in 2025-26 — a 3.3-point decline across 3 usable seasons, with no age in the data to say whether that's a career turn or a blip.
$314M is still committed over 5 more years, which is exactly the exposure that turns "down year" into "structural problem" if the trend is real.
How you’d settle it
Split the decline by usage and role changes and check games missed before assuming it's decline; a real cliff shows up in efficiency at stable usage, not just in a shorter box score.
Take this into your notebook — clipping freezes the case, evidence and all, so you can build an argument around it.
The Evidence
What’s already on the record.
Rendered under the house assumption set on the server — this is not personalized. Your own sliders and lens apply once you open a player’s page or clip from a live surface.
Player evidence
Jayson Tatum→Albatross riskunder these assumptions
BOSSecond apron$54.1M/yr · 5 yrs · $314M left
Albatross risk — −$104M on $314M still owed
Scenario sensitivity−$119M → −$89.2M
Bear−$119M
Base−$104M
Bull−$89.2M