Karl-Anthony Towns
Albatross risk — −$79.3M on $171M still owed
Karl-Anthony Towns projects to 7.7 marginal wins — $26.9M of on-court value — against an apron-adjusted true cost of $106M.
Albatross risk — −$79.3M on $171M still owed
−$79.3M sits close enough to fair (or too rigid to move) that the right play is patience, not a transaction.
For $53.1M this season (3 yr, $171M total), you are buying 7.7 marginal wins of EPM production — $26.9M of value at $3.5M/win. Against an apron-adjusted true cost of $106M, that nets −$79.3M of surplus, 177th of 178 tracked contracts — it grades as an albatross.
If wins price up toward $4.2M/win and the apron tax eases, production value climbs to $35.6M and surplus swings to −$57.3M — an albatross in the optimistic case.
If a marginal win is worth less and the apron bites harder, true cost rises to $119M and surplus falls to −$100M — an albatross in the pessimistic case.
The market's own numbers: a win costs what the middle of the league pays for it.
Every apron dollar is real money — the tax ledger, not the highlight reel, decides who wins the summer.
Banners hang forever. A marginal win today is worth almost any tomorrow, and the tax is the cost of doing business.
Wins you buy before you're ready are the most expensive wins in basketball — flexibility is the only asset that never ages.
The tenth man is closer to the star than the star's agent admits — pay for scarcity you can prove, not reputation.
Similar money band ($53.1M vs $53.1M) and impact (3.1 vs 2.9); his deal grades albatross risk at −$76.3M.
Similar money band ($54.1M vs $53.1M) and impact (2.9 vs 2.9); his deal grades albatross risk at −$61.2M.
Similar money band ($53.1M vs $53.1M) and impact (2.6 vs 2.9); his deal grades albatross risk at −$78.7M.
How the model gets there.
The audit trail behind every figure in the memo above — six steps from raw on-court impact to the final surplus verdict, using the same sliders. Drag any assumption and the memo above updates with it.
AASV = wins × $/win − cap hit × apron multiplier. Set the knobs to your own front-office judgment — every number on this page updates live.
League estimated net rating (per 100 poss. vs. an average player), cached from stats.nba.com (seed snapshot).
Est. Impact = 2.9 · 2025-26 · 68 games · 2,300 minutes
Impact is credited above replacement level (-2.0), scaled by the possessions he actually played (minutes × 2.08/min), then converted at 30.5 net points per win.
(2.9 − (-2.0)) × 4,792 poss ÷ 100 = 235 net pts
235 ÷ 30.5 = 7.7 wins
Wins are priced at your $/win setting ($3.5M per win).
7.7 wins × $3.5M = $26.9M
NYK is a second apron team, so every Karl-Anthony Towns dollar is charged at 2.00× — your setting for what that tier’s tax and roster restrictions really cost. Contract: 3 yrs · $171M remaining.
$53.1M cap hit × 2.00 = $106M
$26.9M − $106M = −$79.3M
Karl-Anthony Towns costs more than he produces under these assumptions — the contract eats value.
Karl-Anthony Towns's impact is trending down (-0.9 across tracked seasons) — that decline is a direct input into the elevated aging-risk grade on the years still owed.