Jaylen Brown
Albatross risk — −$76.3M on $236M still owed
Jaylen Brown projects to 8.5 marginal wins — $29.9M of on-court value — against an apron-adjusted true cost of $106M.
Albatross risk — −$76.3M on $236M still owed
−$76.3M sits close enough to fair (or too rigid to move) that the right play is patience, not a transaction.
For $53.1M this season (4 yr, $236M total), you are buying 8.5 marginal wins of EPM production — $29.9M of value at $3.5M/win. Against an apron-adjusted true cost of $106M, that nets −$76.3M of surplus, 175th of 178 tracked contracts — it grades as an albatross.
If wins price up toward $4.2M/win and the apron tax eases, production value climbs to $39.4M and surplus swings to −$53.6M — an albatross in the optimistic case.
If a marginal win is worth less and the apron bites harder, true cost rises to $119M and surplus falls to −$97.9M — an albatross in the pessimistic case.
The market's own numbers: a win costs what the middle of the league pays for it.
Every apron dollar is real money — the tax ledger, not the highlight reel, decides who wins the summer.
Banners hang forever. A marginal win today is worth almost any tomorrow, and the tax is the cost of doing business.
Wins you buy before you're ready are the most expensive wins in basketball — flexibility is the only asset that never ages.
The tenth man is closer to the star than the star's agent admits — pay for scarcity you can prove, not reputation.
Similar money band ($53.1M vs $53.1M) and impact (2.9 vs 3.1); his deal grades albatross risk at −$79.3M.
Similar money band ($52.6M vs $53.1M) and impact (3.2 vs 3.1); his deal grades albatross risk at −$55.9M.
Similar money band ($54.1M vs $53.1M) and impact (2.9 vs 3.1); his deal grades albatross risk at −$61.2M.
How the model gets there.
The audit trail behind every figure in the memo above — six steps from raw on-court impact to the final surplus verdict, using the same sliders. Drag any assumption and the memo above updates with it.
AASV = wins × $/win − cap hit × apron multiplier. Set the knobs to your own front-office judgment — every number on this page updates live.
League estimated net rating (per 100 poss. vs. an average player), cached from stats.nba.com (seed snapshot).
Est. Impact = 3.1 · 2025-26 · 70 games · 2,450 minutes
Impact is credited above replacement level (-2.0), scaled by the possessions he actually played (minutes × 2.08/min), then converted at 30.5 net points per win.
(3.1 − (-2.0)) × 5,104 poss ÷ 100 = 260 net pts
260 ÷ 30.5 = 8.5 wins
Wins are priced at your $/win setting ($3.5M per win).
8.5 wins × $3.5M = $29.9M
BOS is a second apron team, so every Jaylen Brown dollar is charged at 2.00× — your setting for what that tier’s tax and roster restrictions really cost. Contract: 4 yrs · $236M remaining.
$53.1M cap hit × 2.00 = $106M
$29.9M − $106M = −$76.3M
Jaylen Brown costs more than he produces under these assumptions — the contract eats value.
Jaylen Brown's impact is trending down (-0.4 across tracked seasons) — that decline is a direct input into the severe aging-risk grade on the years still owed.