Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Top-3 surplus deal of 178 tracked contracts
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander projects to 18.1 marginal wins — $63.4M of on-court value — against an apron-adjusted true cost of $38.3M.
Top-3 surplus deal of 178 tracked contracts
+$25.1M of surplus on 5 years of control is a core-building asset; there is no version of this roster that gets better by moving it.
For $38.3M this season (5 yr, $217M total), you are buying 18.1 marginal wins of EPM production — $63.4M of value at $3.5M/win. Against an apron-adjusted true cost of $38.3M, that nets +$25.1M of surplus, 3rd of 178 tracked contracts — it grades as a bargain.
If wins price up toward $4.2M/win and the apron tax eases, production value climbs to $79.8M and surplus swings to +$41.5M — a bargain in the optimistic case.
If a marginal win is worth less and the apron bites harder, true cost rises to $38.3M and surplus falls to +$9.9M — fair value in the pessimistic case; the verdict flips across the band.
Caution — the verdict flips somewhere across bear/base/bull assumptions. This call is assumption-sensitive, not settled.
This call changes under bear assumptions: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander grades Fairly priced in the bear case but Bargainin the bull case — treat the verdict above as a live read of today’s sliders, not a settled fact.
The market's own numbers: a win costs what the middle of the league pays for it.
Every apron dollar is real money — the tax ledger, not the highlight reel, decides who wins the summer.
Banners hang forever. A marginal win today is worth almost any tomorrow, and the tax is the cost of doing business.
Wins you buy before you're ready are the most expensive wins in basketball — flexibility is the only asset that never ages.
The tenth man is closer to the star than the star's agent admits — pay for scarcity you can prove, not reputation.
2 of 5 desks disagree with the verdict above — that disagreement is the story.
Similar money band ($45.9M vs $38.3M) and impact (6.1 vs 8.2); his deal grades albatross risk at −$20.4M.
Similar money band ($34.9M vs $38.3M) and impact (4.9 vs 8.2); his deal grades albatross risk at −$28.6M.
Similar money band ($38.3M vs $38.3M) and impact (3.3 vs 8.2); his deal grades paying a premium at −$6.6M.
How the model gets there.
The audit trail behind every figure in the memo above — six steps from raw on-court impact to the final surplus verdict, using the same sliders. Drag any assumption and the memo above updates with it.
AASV = wins × $/win − cap hit × apron multiplier. Set the knobs to your own front-office judgment — every number on this page updates live.
League estimated net rating (per 100 poss. vs. an average player), cached from stats.nba.com (seed snapshot).
Est. Impact = 8.2 · 2025-26 · 76 games · 2,600 minutes
Impact is credited above replacement level (-2.0), scaled by the possessions he actually played (minutes × 2.08/min), then converted at 30.5 net points per win.
(8.2 − (-2.0)) × 5,417 poss ÷ 100 = 553 net pts
553 ÷ 30.5 = 18.1 wins
Wins are priced at your $/win setting ($3.5M per win).
18.1 wins × $3.5M = $63.4M
OKC is a below apron team, so every Shai Gilgeous-Alexander dollar is charged at 1.00× — your setting for what that tier’s tax and roster restrictions really cost. Contract: 5 yrs · $217M remaining.
$38.3M cap hit × 1.00 = $38.3M
$63.4M − $38.3M = +$25.1M
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander out-produces his true cost under these assumptions — a surplus asset.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's impact is trending up (+1.7 across tracked seasons) — that upward line is why the aging-risk read stays at moderate rather than climbing.