Luka Doncic
Albatross risk — −$20.4M on $165M still owed
Luka Doncic projects to 13.8 marginal wins — $48.4M of on-court value — against an apron-adjusted true cost of $68.8M.
Albatross risk — −$20.4M on $165M still owed
At −$20.4M under water the deal drags the books; it still grades "needs-sweetener", so quietly canvassing the market beats waiting for it to worsen.
For $45.9M this season (3 yr, $165M total), you are buying 13.8 marginal wins of EPM production — $48.4M of value at $3.5M/win. Against an apron-adjusted true cost of $68.8M, that nets −$20.4M of surplus, 139th of 178 tracked contracts — it grades as an albatross.
If wins price up toward $4.2M/win and the apron tax eases, production value climbs to $61.7M and surplus swings to +$4.3M — fair value in the optimistic case.
If a marginal win is worth less and the apron bites harder, true cost rises to $80.3M and surplus falls to −$44.0M — an albatross in the pessimistic case; the verdict flips across the band.
Caution — the verdict flips somewhere across bear/base/bull assumptions. This call is assumption-sensitive, not settled.
This call changes under bear assumptions: Luka Doncic grades Albatross risk in the bear case but Fairly pricedin the bull case — treat the verdict above as a live read of today’s sliders, not a settled fact.
The market's own numbers: a win costs what the middle of the league pays for it.
Every apron dollar is real money — the tax ledger, not the highlight reel, decides who wins the summer.
Banners hang forever. A marginal win today is worth almost any tomorrow, and the tax is the cost of doing business.
Wins you buy before you're ready are the most expensive wins in basketball — flexibility is the only asset that never ages.
The tenth man is closer to the star than the star's agent admits — pay for scarcity you can prove, not reputation.
1 of 5 desks disagree with the verdict above — that disagreement is the story.
Take the question to the docket →Similar money band ($45.6M vs $45.9M) and impact (5.2 vs 6.1); his deal grades albatross risk at −$43.9M.
Similar money band ($46.4M vs $45.9M) and impact (4.7 vs 6.1); his deal grades albatross risk at −$54.4M.
Similar money band ($46.6M vs $45.9M) and impact (4.4 vs 6.1); his deal grades albatross risk at −$54.9M.
How the model gets there.
The audit trail behind every figure in the memo above — six steps from raw on-court impact to the final surplus verdict, using the same sliders. Drag any assumption and the memo above updates with it.
AASV = wins × $/win − cap hit × apron multiplier. Set the knobs to your own front-office judgment — every number on this page updates live.
League estimated net rating (per 100 poss. vs. an average player), cached from stats.nba.com (seed snapshot).
Est. Impact = 6.1 · 2025-26 · 70 games · 2,500 minutes
Impact is credited above replacement level (-2.0), scaled by the possessions he actually played (minutes × 2.08/min), then converted at 30.5 net points per win.
(6.1 − (-2.0)) × 5,208 poss ÷ 100 = 422 net pts
422 ÷ 30.5 = 13.8 wins
Wins are priced at your $/win setting ($3.5M per win).
13.8 wins × $3.5M = $48.4M
LAL is a first apron team, so every Luka Doncic dollar is charged at 1.50× — your setting for what that tier’s tax and roster restrictions really cost. Contract: 3 yrs · $165M remaining.
$45.9M cap hit × 1.50 = $68.8M
$48.4M − $68.8M = −$20.4M
Luka Doncic costs more than he produces under these assumptions — the contract eats value.
Luka Doncic's impact is trending down (-1.4 across tracked seasons) — that decline is a direct input into the elevated aging-risk grade on the years still owed.