Tyrese Maxey
Albatross risk — −$29.0M on $171M still owed
Tyrese Maxey projects to 8.0 marginal wins — $27.9M of on-court value — against an apron-adjusted true cost of $56.9M.
Albatross risk — −$29.0M on $171M still owed
At −$29.0M under water the deal drags the books; it still grades "needs-sweetener", so quietly canvassing the market beats waiting for it to worsen.
For $37.9M this season (4 yr, $171M total), you are buying 8.0 marginal wins of EPM production — $27.9M of value at $3.5M/win. Against an apron-adjusted true cost of $56.9M, that nets −$29.0M of surplus, 153rd of 178 tracked contracts — it grades as an albatross.
If wins price up toward $4.2M/win and the apron tax eases, production value climbs to $37.3M and surplus swings to −$10.1M — an overpay in the optimistic case.
If a marginal win is worth less and the apron bites harder, true cost rises to $66.3M and surplus falls to −$46.6M — an albatross in the pessimistic case; the verdict flips across the band.
Caution — the verdict flips somewhere across bear/base/bull assumptions. This call is assumption-sensitive, not settled.
This call changes under bear assumptions: Tyrese Maxey grades Albatross risk in the bear case but Paying a premiumin the bull case — treat the verdict above as a live read of today’s sliders, not a settled fact.
The market's own numbers: a win costs what the middle of the league pays for it.
Every apron dollar is real money — the tax ledger, not the highlight reel, decides who wins the summer.
Banners hang forever. A marginal win today is worth almost any tomorrow, and the tax is the cost of doing business.
Wins you buy before you're ready are the most expensive wins in basketball — flexibility is the only asset that never ages.
The tenth man is closer to the star than the star's agent admits — pay for scarcity you can prove, not reputation.
1 of 5 desks disagree with the verdict above — that disagreement is the story.
Take the question to the docket →Similar money band ($39.4M vs $37.9M) and impact (2.6 vs 2.4); his deal grades albatross risk at −$22.9M.
Similar money band ($37.9M vs $37.9M) and impact (3.2 vs 2.4); his deal grades albatross risk at −$25.8M.
Similar money band ($37.1M vs $37.9M) and impact (1.8 vs 2.4); his deal grades albatross risk at −$16.2M.
How the model gets there.
The audit trail behind every figure in the memo above — six steps from raw on-court impact to the final surplus verdict, using the same sliders. Drag any assumption and the memo above updates with it.
AASV = wins × $/win − cap hit × apron multiplier. Set the knobs to your own front-office judgment — every number on this page updates live.
League estimated net rating (per 100 poss. vs. an average player), cached from stats.nba.com (seed snapshot).
Est. Impact = 2.4 · 2025-26 · 72 games · 2,650 minutes
Impact is credited above replacement level (-2.0), scaled by the possessions he actually played (minutes × 2.08/min), then converted at 30.5 net points per win.
(2.4 − (-2.0)) × 5,521 poss ÷ 100 = 243 net pts
243 ÷ 30.5 = 8.0 wins
Wins are priced at your $/win setting ($3.5M per win).
8.0 wins × $3.5M = $27.9M
PHI is a first apron team, so every Tyrese Maxey dollar is charged at 1.50× — your setting for what that tier’s tax and roster restrictions really cost. Contract: 4 yrs · $171M remaining.
$37.9M cap hit × 1.50 = $56.9M
$27.9M − $56.9M = −$29.0M
Tyrese Maxey costs more than he produces under these assumptions — the contract eats value.
First season on file — the trend view, and its tie-in to aging risk, unlocks once another season lands.