Zion Williamson
Albatross risk — −$22.9M on $127M still owed
Zion Williamson projects to 4.7 marginal wins — $16.5M of on-court value — against an apron-adjusted true cost of $39.4M.
Albatross risk — −$22.9M on $127M still owed
At −$22.9M under water the deal drags the books; it still grades "needs-sweetener", so quietly canvassing the market beats waiting for it to worsen.
For $39.4M this season (3 yr, $127M total), you are buying 4.7 marginal wins of EPM production — $16.5M of value at $3.5M/win. Against an apron-adjusted true cost of $39.4M, that nets −$22.9M of surplus, 142nd of 178 tracked contracts — it grades as an albatross.
If wins price up toward $4.2M/win and the apron tax eases, production value climbs to $21.9M and surplus swings to −$17.5M — an albatross in the optimistic case.
If a marginal win is worth less and the apron bites harder, true cost rises to $39.4M and surplus falls to −$27.6M — an albatross in the pessimistic case.
The market's own numbers: a win costs what the middle of the league pays for it.
Every apron dollar is real money — the tax ledger, not the highlight reel, decides who wins the summer.
Banners hang forever. A marginal win today is worth almost any tomorrow, and the tax is the cost of doing business.
Wins you buy before you're ready are the most expensive wins in basketball — flexibility is the only asset that never ages.
The tenth man is closer to the star than the star's agent admits — pay for scarcity you can prove, not reputation.
1 of 5 desks disagree with the verdict above — that disagreement is the story.
Similar money band ($37.9M vs $39.4M) and impact (2.4 vs 2.6); his deal grades albatross risk at −$29.0M.
Similar money band ($38.7M vs $39.4M) and impact (3.1 vs 2.6); his deal grades albatross risk at −$26.3M.
Similar money band ($38.7M vs $39.4M) and impact (3.3 vs 2.6); his deal grades paying a premium at −$7.0M.
How the model gets there.
The audit trail behind every figure in the memo above — six steps from raw on-court impact to the final surplus verdict, using the same sliders. Drag any assumption and the memo above updates with it.
AASV = wins × $/win − cap hit × apron multiplier. Set the knobs to your own front-office judgment — every number on this page updates live.
League estimated net rating (per 100 poss. vs. an average player), cached from stats.nba.com (seed snapshot).
Est. Impact = 2.6 · 2025-26 · 48 games · 1,500 minutes
Impact is credited above replacement level (-2.0), scaled by the possessions he actually played (minutes × 2.08/min), then converted at 30.5 net points per win.
(2.6 − (-2.0)) × 3,125 poss ÷ 100 = 144 net pts
144 ÷ 30.5 = 4.7 wins
Wins are priced at your $/win setting ($3.5M per win).
4.7 wins × $3.5M = $16.5M
NOP is a below apron team, so every Zion Williamson dollar is charged at 1.00× — your setting for what that tier’s tax and roster restrictions really cost. Contract: 3 yrs · $127M remaining.
$39.4M cap hit × 1.00 = $39.4M
$16.5M − $39.4M = −$22.9M
Zion Williamson costs more than he produces under these assumptions — the contract eats value.
First season on file — the trend view, and its tie-in to aging risk, unlocks once another season lands.