De'Aaron Fox
Albatross risk — −$16.2M on $266M still owed
De'Aaron Fox projects to 6.0 marginal wins — $20.9M of on-court value — against an apron-adjusted true cost of $37.1M.
Albatross risk — −$16.2M on $266M still owed
At −$16.2M under water the deal drags the books; it still grades "needs-sweetener", so quietly canvassing the market beats waiting for it to worsen.
For $37.1M this season (5 yr, $266M total), you are buying 6.0 marginal wins of EPM production — $20.9M of value at $3.5M/win. Against an apron-adjusted true cost of $37.1M, that nets −$16.2M of surplus, 128th of 178 tracked contracts — it grades as an albatross.
If wins price up toward $4.2M/win and the apron tax eases, production value climbs to $28.4M and surplus swings to −$8.7M — an overpay in the optimistic case.
If a marginal win is worth less and the apron bites harder, true cost rises to $37.1M and surplus falls to −$22.6M — an albatross in the pessimistic case; the verdict flips across the band.
Caution — the verdict flips somewhere across bear/base/bull assumptions. This call is assumption-sensitive, not settled.
This call changes under bear assumptions: De'Aaron Fox grades Albatross risk in the bear case but Paying a premiumin the bull case — treat the verdict above as a live read of today’s sliders, not a settled fact.
The market's own numbers: a win costs what the middle of the league pays for it.
Every apron dollar is real money — the tax ledger, not the highlight reel, decides who wins the summer.
Banners hang forever. A marginal win today is worth almost any tomorrow, and the tax is the cost of doing business.
Wins you buy before you're ready are the most expensive wins in basketball — flexibility is the only asset that never ages.
The tenth man is closer to the star than the star's agent admits — pay for scarcity you can prove, not reputation.
1 of 5 desks disagree with the verdict above — that disagreement is the story.
Take the question to the docket →Similar money band ($36.7M vs $37.1M) and impact (1.5 vs 1.8); his deal grades albatross risk at −$49.7M.
Similar money band ($39.4M vs $37.1M) and impact (1.7 vs 1.8); his deal grades albatross risk at −$25.2M.
Similar money band ($37.9M vs $37.1M) and impact (2.4 vs 1.8); his deal grades albatross risk at −$29.0M.
How the model gets there.
The audit trail behind every figure in the memo above — six steps from raw on-court impact to the final surplus verdict, using the same sliders. Drag any assumption and the memo above updates with it.
AASV = wins × $/win − cap hit × apron multiplier. Set the knobs to your own front-office judgment — every number on this page updates live.
League estimated net rating (per 100 poss. vs. an average player), cached from stats.nba.com (seed snapshot).
Est. Impact = 1.8 · 2025-26 · 66 games · 2,300 minutes
Impact is credited above replacement level (-2.0), scaled by the possessions he actually played (minutes × 2.08/min), then converted at 30.5 net points per win.
(1.8 − (-2.0)) × 4,792 poss ÷ 100 = 182 net pts
182 ÷ 30.5 = 6.0 wins
Wins are priced at your $/win setting ($3.5M per win).
6.0 wins × $3.5M = $20.9M
SAS is a below apron team, so every De'Aaron Fox dollar is charged at 1.00× — your setting for what that tier’s tax and roster restrictions really cost. Contract: 5 yrs · $266M remaining.
$37.1M cap hit × 1.00 = $37.1M
$20.9M − $37.1M = −$16.2M
De'Aaron Fox costs more than he produces under these assumptions — the contract eats value.
First season on file — the trend view, and its tie-in to aging risk, unlocks once another season lands.