Is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's $38.3M deal a bargain or fair value — which read survives a real season?

The bear/bull sensitivity band doesn't just move the surplus number, it moves the verdict itself: fair value in the pessimistic case, a bargain in the optimistic one, on the exact same contract.

That's a +$31.6M surplus swing sitting on top of a $38.3M cap hit — a modest shift in what a marginal win is worth, or how hard the apron bites, is enough to flip which side of the ledger this lands on.

Rerun the valuation at the dollars-per-win and apron multipliers you actually believe today, and report which side of the flip they land on before calling this a bargain or an albatross.

What’s already on the record.

Rendered under the house assumption set on the server — this is not personalized. Your own sliders and lens apply once you open a player’s page or clip from a live surface.