Orlando Magic

Covers the 6 tracked contracts at the top of this cap sheet — not the full 15-man roster · methods →

Win-now, closingApron exposureElevated
Front Office Brief

ORL carries $125M of tracked production (8th of 30) against $205M of true cost, netting −$80.1M of surplus (18th of 30).

Tracked production$125M
Tracked true cost$205M
Net surplus−$80.1M
Tracked contracts6
FSI gradeC · 58/100
Move off Franz Wagner's money

Franz Wagner carries −$26.3M of negative surplus on $224M across 5 years. It grades "needs-sweetener" — the front office's biggest lever is finding the exit before the term shortens the buyer pool further.

Orlando Magic · Franchise Strategy IndexExperimental
Overall58/100C

Weighted profile led by roster quality (75/100).

Roster quality75/100B

$125M of tracked production ranks 8th of 30 tracked teams.

Cap flexibility51/100D

$137M committed at the first-apron tier — limited tools.

Asset base42/100D

−$80.1M of aggregate surplus ranks 18th of 30 tracked teams.

Championship window62/100C

Blend of 75th-pct production now and 42th-pct surplus to build on.

Downside risk (inverse — higher is safer)42/100D

40% of spend sits in negative-surplus money (moderate concentration).

Optionality72/100B

1 positive-asset contract plus constrained cap sheet.

Roster thesis

ORL carries $125M of tracked production (8th of 30) against $205M of true cost, netting −$80.1M of surplus (18th of 30). That profile reads win-now: an overall C-grade roster (58/100) whose defining trait is roster quality (75/100).

Best asset
Paolo BancheroFairly priced

Paolo Banchero is the surplus engine: +$2.2M on $15.3M, 7.2 marginal wins of production.

Worst liability
Franz WagnerAlbatross risk

Franz Wagner is the drag: −$26.3M under water on $224M still owed over 5 years.

Apron exposure
Tracked booksElevatedFirst-apron majority lifts $137M of cap into $205M of true cost — a $68.3M tax premium and the roster tools that come with it.
Next Decision

Move off Franz Wagner's money

Franz Wagner carries −$26.3M of negative surplus on $224M across 5 years. It grades "needs-sweetener" — the front office's biggest lever is finding the exit before the term shortens the buyer pool further.

Warning

Strategic warning

Concentration risk: Franz Wagner's −$26.3M deal can swallow the flexibility the rest of the sheet creates.

Orlando Magic · Cap Sheet6 contracts tracked

This is BOW’s curated slice of Orlando Magic’s books, not the full roster — totals below cover only the 6 tracked contracts shown here.

Tracked cap committed$137M
Production value$125M
True cost$205M
Total AASV−$80.1M
Tracked cap hits
Model Assumptions

AASV = wins × $/win − cap hit × apron multiplier. Set the knobs to your own front-office judgment — every number on this page updates live.

$3.5M
What one marginal win costs on the open market.
1.50×
How much a first-apron team's dollar really costs (tax bill, shrinking roster tools).
2.00×
The punitive tier — frozen picks, no salary aggregation, repeater tax.
Best valueFairly priced
Paolo Banchero

$15.3M cap hit

+$2.2M AASV

Biggest holeAlbatross risk
Franz Wagner

$38.7M cap hit

−$26.3M AASV

PlayerCap hitAASVVerdict
Franz Wagner$38.7M−$26.3MAlbatross risk
Desmond Bane$37.9M−$25.8MAlbatross risk
Jalen Suggs$30.0M−$19.9MAlbatross risk
Paolo Banchero$15.3M+$2.2MFairly priced
Anthony Black$8.0M−$4.8MAlbatross risk
Goga Bitadze$6.8M−$5.5MAlbatross risk