BOW Analytics · Value in Transit

Who won the trade? Sometimes both teams did.

Under the CBA, the apron multiplier belongs to the team, not the player — so the same contract costs more on a taxed roster than on a clean one. Production, meanwhile, travels with the player unchanged. Move the pricier deal to the cheaper books and you create surplus before either roster plays a game. That asymmetry is going to drive the next five years of star movement. Here it is — priced under your assumptions, on the contracts we track.

← Back to the desk Read the apron piece →value created = (cap gap) × (apron-multiplier gap)

178 tracked contracts · salary matching and apron aggregation only, not the full CBA · methods →

Trade Machine

Swap any two tracked contracts. Each player’s value is repriced at his new team’s apron tier — the gap between the two is surplus created (or destroyed) by the cap alone. Runs on your slider assumptions.

Team A trades

Team B trades

Trade Analysis · Apron RepricingValue created+$4.1M

+$4.1M of value created in transit

Boston CelticsSecond apron

▼ Sends Jayson Tatum ($54.1M)
▲ Gets Kawhi Leonard ($50.0M)

Cap −$4.1MIncoming true cost $100M (2.00×)

Gains value+$30.9M

BOS banks +$30.9M of surplus: Kawhi Leonard reprices to $100M of true cost at the second apron, cheaper value than Jayson Tatum was returning.

LA ClippersBelow apron

▼ Sends Kawhi Leonard ($50.0M)
▲ Gets Jayson Tatum ($54.1M)

Cap +$4.1MIncoming true cost $54.1M (1.00×)

Loses value−$26.8M

LAC gives up −$26.8M of surplus: Jayson Tatum's $54.1M true cost at the below apron outruns the −$23.2M Kawhi Leonard provided.

Jayson Tatum's $54.1M is priced at 2.00× on BOS but 1.00× on LAC — moving the bigger salary toward the BOS tier is what creates +$4.1M of surplus, before either roster plays a game.

On value alone BOS is the better side of the deal (+$30.9M vs −$26.8M for LAC) — a clear win-one-side trade.

Legality read: Salaries are $4.1M apart (within the ~25% straight-swap tolerance), so this works as a one-for-one under standard matching rules.

What this ignores: Pure value only: this ignores positional fit, roster construction, draft compensation, health, and contract length. A real front office weighs all of them — the surplus math is the starting point of the conversation, not the end of it.

Computed under model defaults

The multipliers you set on the dashboard sliders drive this — think the first apron is a speed bump, not a wall? Drop it toward 1.2× and watch how much less value a below-apron destination creates. The model is only ever as confident as your assumptions.