Kyrie Irving
Albatross risk — −$49.7M on $119M still owed
Kyrie Irving projects to 1.5 marginal wins — $5.4M of on-court value — against an apron-adjusted true cost of $55.0M.
Albatross risk — −$49.7M on $119M still owed
At −$49.7M under water the deal drags the books; it still grades "needs-sweetener", so quietly canvassing the market beats waiting for it to worsen.
For $36.7M this season (3 yr, $119M total), you are buying 1.5 marginal wins of BPM production — $5.4M of value at $3.5M/win. Against an apron-adjusted true cost of $55.0M, that nets −$49.7M of surplus, 164th of 178 tracked contracts — it grades as an albatross.
If wins price up toward $4.2M/win and the apron tax eases, production value climbs to $7.3M and surplus swings to −$38.5M — an albatross in the optimistic case.
If a marginal win is worth less and the apron bites harder, true cost rises to $64.2M and surplus falls to −$60.6M — an albatross in the pessimistic case.
The market's own numbers: a win costs what the middle of the league pays for it.
Every apron dollar is real money — the tax ledger, not the highlight reel, decides who wins the summer.
Banners hang forever. A marginal win today is worth almost any tomorrow, and the tax is the cost of doing business.
Wins you buy before you're ready are the most expensive wins in basketball — flexibility is the only asset that never ages.
The tenth man is closer to the star than the star's agent admits — pay for scarcity you can prove, not reputation.
Similar money band ($37.1M vs $36.7M) and impact (1.8 vs 1.5); his deal grades albatross risk at −$16.2M.
Similar money band ($39.4M vs $36.7M) and impact (1.7 vs 1.5); his deal grades albatross risk at −$25.2M.
Similar money band ($35.0M vs $36.7M) and impact (2.2 vs 1.5); his deal grades albatross risk at −$47.4M.
How the model gets there.
The audit trail behind every figure in the memo above — six steps from raw on-court impact to the final surplus verdict, using the same sliders. Drag any assumption and the memo above updates with it.
AASV = wins × $/win − cap hit × apron multiplier. Set the knobs to your own front-office judgment — every number on this page updates live.
No est. impact metric on file — falling back to Box Plus/Minus from the editable snapshot.
BPM = 1.5 · 2025-26 · 20 games · 640 minutes
Impact is credited above replacement level (-2.0), scaled by the possessions he actually played (minutes × 2.08/min), then converted at 30.5 net points per win.
(1.5 − (-2.0)) × 1,333 poss ÷ 100 = 47 net pts
47 ÷ 30.5 = 1.5 wins
Wins are priced at your $/win setting ($3.5M per win).
1.5 wins × $3.5M = $5.4M
DAL is a first apron team, so every Kyrie Irving dollar is charged at 1.50× — your setting for what that tier’s tax and roster restrictions really cost. Contract: 3 yrs · $119M remaining.
$36.7M cap hit × 1.50 = $55.0M
$5.4M − $55.0M = −$49.7M
Kyrie Irving costs more than he produces under these assumptions — the contract eats value.
First season on file — the trend view, and its tie-in to aging risk, unlocks once another season lands.