LeBron James
Albatross risk — −$55.9M on $52.6M still owed
LeBron James projects to 6.6 marginal wins — $23.0M of on-court value — against an apron-adjusted true cost of $78.9M.
Albatross risk — −$55.9M on $52.6M still owed
At −$55.9M under water the deal drags the books; it still grades "needs-sweetener", so quietly canvassing the market beats waiting for it to worsen.
For $52.6M this season (1 yr, $52.6M total), you are buying 6.6 marginal wins of EPM production — $23.0M of value at $3.5M/win. Against an apron-adjusted true cost of $78.9M, that nets −$55.9M of surplus, 169th of 178 tracked contracts — it grades as an albatross.
If wins price up toward $4.2M/win and the apron tax eases, production value climbs to $30.3M and surplus swings to −$35.5M — an albatross in the optimistic case.
If a marginal win is worth less and the apron bites harder, true cost rises to $92.0M and surplus falls to −$75.4M — an albatross in the pessimistic case.
The market's own numbers: a win costs what the middle of the league pays for it.
Every apron dollar is real money — the tax ledger, not the highlight reel, decides who wins the summer.
Banners hang forever. A marginal win today is worth almost any tomorrow, and the tax is the cost of doing business.
Wins you buy before you're ready are the most expensive wins in basketball — flexibility is the only asset that never ages.
The tenth man is closer to the star than the star's agent admits — pay for scarcity you can prove, not reputation.
Similar money band ($53.1M vs $52.6M) and impact (3.1 vs 3.2); his deal grades albatross risk at −$76.3M.
Similar money band ($53.1M vs $52.6M) and impact (2.9 vs 3.2); his deal grades albatross risk at −$79.3M.
Similar money band ($54.1M vs $52.6M) and impact (2.9 vs 3.2); his deal grades albatross risk at −$61.2M.
How the model gets there.
The audit trail behind every figure in the memo above — six steps from raw on-court impact to the final surplus verdict, using the same sliders. Drag any assumption and the memo above updates with it.
AASV = wins × $/win − cap hit × apron multiplier. Set the knobs to your own front-office judgment — every number on this page updates live.
League estimated net rating (per 100 poss. vs. an average player), cached from stats.nba.com (seed snapshot).
Est. Impact = 3.2 · 2025-26 · 55 games · 1,850 minutes
Impact is credited above replacement level (-2.0), scaled by the possessions he actually played (minutes × 2.08/min), then converted at 30.5 net points per win.
(3.2 − (-2.0)) × 3,854 poss ÷ 100 = 200 net pts
200 ÷ 30.5 = 6.6 wins
Wins are priced at your $/win setting ($3.5M per win).
6.6 wins × $3.5M = $23.0M
LAL is a first apron team, so every LeBron James dollar is charged at 1.50× — your setting for what that tier’s tax and roster restrictions really cost. Contract: 1 yr · $52.6M remaining.
$52.6M cap hit × 1.50 = $78.9M
$23.0M − $78.9M = −$55.9M
LeBron James costs more than he produces under these assumptions — the contract eats value.
First season on file — the trend view, and its tie-in to aging risk, unlocks once another season lands.