Kevin Durant
Albatross risk — −$51.7M on $121M still owed
Kevin Durant projects to 8.7 marginal wins — $30.3M of on-court value — against an apron-adjusted true cost of $82.0M.
Albatross risk — −$51.7M on $121M still owed
At −$51.7M under water the deal drags the books; it still grades "needs-sweetener", so quietly canvassing the market beats waiting for it to worsen.
For $54.7M this season (2 yr, $121M total), you are buying 8.7 marginal wins of EPM production — $30.3M of value at $3.5M/win. Against an apron-adjusted true cost of $82.0M, that nets −$51.7M of surplus, 166th of 178 tracked contracts — it grades as an albatross.
If wins price up toward $4.2M/win and the apron tax eases, production value climbs to $39.8M and surplus swings to −$28.6M — an albatross in the optimistic case.
If a marginal win is worth less and the apron bites harder, true cost rises to $95.7M and surplus falls to −$73.7M — an albatross in the pessimistic case.
The market's own numbers: a win costs what the middle of the league pays for it.
Every apron dollar is real money — the tax ledger, not the highlight reel, decides who wins the summer.
Banners hang forever. A marginal win today is worth almost any tomorrow, and the tax is the cost of doing business.
Wins you buy before you're ready are the most expensive wins in basketball — flexibility is the only asset that never ages.
The tenth man is closer to the star than the star's agent admits — pay for scarcity you can prove, not reputation.
Similar money band ($54.1M vs $54.7M) and impact (2.9 vs 3.4); his deal grades albatross risk at −$61.2M.
Similar money band ($53.1M vs $54.7M) and impact (3.1 vs 3.4); his deal grades albatross risk at −$76.3M.
Similar money band ($52.6M vs $54.7M) and impact (3.2 vs 3.4); his deal grades albatross risk at −$55.9M.
How the model gets there.
The audit trail behind every figure in the memo above — six steps from raw on-court impact to the final surplus verdict, using the same sliders. Drag any assumption and the memo above updates with it.
AASV = wins × $/win − cap hit × apron multiplier. Set the knobs to your own front-office judgment — every number on this page updates live.
League estimated net rating (per 100 poss. vs. an average player), cached from stats.nba.com (seed snapshot).
Est. Impact = 3.4 · 2025-26 · 66 games · 2,350 minutes
Impact is credited above replacement level (-2.0), scaled by the possessions he actually played (minutes × 2.08/min), then converted at 30.5 net points per win.
(3.4 − (-2.0)) × 4,896 poss ÷ 100 = 264 net pts
264 ÷ 30.5 = 8.7 wins
Wins are priced at your $/win setting ($3.5M per win).
8.7 wins × $3.5M = $30.3M
HOU is a first apron team, so every Kevin Durant dollar is charged at 1.50× — your setting for what that tier’s tax and roster restrictions really cost. Contract: 2 yrs · $121M remaining.
$54.7M cap hit × 1.50 = $82.0M
$30.3M − $82.0M = −$51.7M
Kevin Durant costs more than he produces under these assumptions — the contract eats value.
First season on file — the trend view, and its tie-in to aging risk, unlocks once another season lands.