Houston Rockets

Covers the 6 tracked contracts at the top of this cap sheet — not the full 15-man roster · methods →

RetoolingApron exposureElevated

Front Office Brief

HOU carries $105M of tracked production (16th of 30) against $203M of true cost, netting −$98.4M of surplus (20th of 30).

Tracked production$105M

Tracked true cost$203M

Net surplus−$98.4M

Tracked contracts6

FSI gradeD · 44/100

Move off Kevin Durant's money

Kevin Durant carries −$51.7M of negative surplus on $121M across 2 years. It grades "needs-sweetener" — the front office's biggest lever is finding the exit before the term shortens the buyer pool further.

Houston Rockets · Franchise Strategy IndexExperimental

Overall44/100D

Weighted profile led by cap flexibility (54/100).

Roster quality48/100D

$105M of tracked production ranks 16th of 30 tracked teams.

Cap flexibility54/100D

$136M committed at the first-apron tier — limited tools.

Asset base35/100F

−$98.4M of aggregate surplus ranks 20th of 30 tracked teams.

Championship window43/100D

Blend of 48th-pct production now and 35th-pct surplus to build on.

Downside risk (inverse — higher is safer)32/100F

48% of spend sits in negative-surplus money (heavy concentration).

Optionality50/100D

0 positive-asset contracts plus constrained cap sheet.

Roster thesis

HOU carries $105M of tracked production (16th of 30) against $203M of true cost, netting −$98.4M of surplus (20th of 30). That profile reads retooling: an overall D-grade roster (44/100) whose defining trait is cap flexibility (54/100).

Best asset

Steven AdamsAlbatross risk

Steven Adams is the surplus engine: −$2.7M on $4.4M, 1.1 marginal wins of production.

Worst liability

Kevin DurantAlbatross risk

Kevin Durant is the drag: −$51.7M under water on $121M still owed over 2 years.

Apron exposure

Tracked booksElevatedFirst-apron majority lifts $136M of cap into $203M of true cost — a $67.8M tax premium and the roster tools that come with it.

Next Decision

Move off Kevin Durant's money

Warning

Strategic warning

Concentration risk: Kevin Durant's −$51.7M deal can swallow the flexibility the rest of the sheet creates.

Houston Rockets · Cap Sheet6 contracts tracked

This is BOW’s curated slice of Houston Rockets’s books, not the full roster — totals below cover only the 6 tracked contracts shown here.

Tracked cap committed$136M

Production value$105M

True cost$203M

Total AASV−$98.4M

Tracked cap hits

Model Assumptions

AASV = wins × $/win − cap hit × apron multiplier. Set the knobs to your own front-office judgment — every number on this page updates live.

Price of a win$3.5M

What one marginal win costs on the open market.

First-apron multiplier1.50×

How much a first-apron team's dollar really costs (tax bill, shrinking roster tools).

Second-apron multiplier2.00×

The punitive tier — frozen picks, no salary aggregation, repeater tax.

Best valueAlbatross risk

Steven Adams

$4.4M cap hit

−$2.7M AASV

Biggest holeAlbatross risk

Kevin Durant

$54.7M cap hit

−$51.7M AASV

Player	Cap hit	AASV	Verdict
Kevin Durant	$54.7M	−$51.7M	Albatross risk
Alperen Sengun	$33.9M	−$16.2M	Paying a premium
Jabari Smith Jr.	$24.0M	−$15.9M	Albatross risk
Amen Thompson	$9.6M	−$6.3M	Albatross risk
Reed Sheppard	$8.9M	−$5.7M	Albatross risk
Steven Adams	$4.4M	−$2.7M	Albatross risk